What will happen next?
The EU is expected to make an announcement on Friday 4 April. It is likely that, at a minimum, the countermeasures the EU were due to implement on 1 April but later postponed will come into effect on or after 15 April.
The EU countermeasures will result in the EU imposing tariffs on a range of imports including Harley- Davidson motorbikes, bourbon, orange juice, jeans, steel and aluminium and impact approximately €6billion of imports from the US.
The EU has also undertaken a consultation to identify a further €18billion of other US products which could be made subject to new EU tariffs. The proposed targeted products include a mixture of industrial and agricultural products (steel and aluminium products, textiles, leather goods, home appliances, house tools, plastics, wood products, poultry, beef, certain seafood, nuts, eggs, dairy, sugar and vegetables).
Given the high Reciprocal Tariff rate applied by the US to EU origin goods, it is likely that further measures will be introduced by the EU.
The US has signalled that President Trump also may increase the US tariff if trading partners retaliate or decrease the tariffs if trading partners take significant steps to remedy non-reciprocal trade arrangements and align with the United States on economic and national security matters.
How that will be interpreted by the EU is yet to be seen, but we expect the EU will as a first step apply a range of tariff countermeasures followed by efforts to negotiate an agreed position with the US, with the threat of additional tariff and non-tariff measures to be applied in the event no agreement is reached.
In this context, Commission President Von Der Leyen has urged negotiations and commented that “We are already finalising a first package of countermeasures in response to tariffs on steel. And we are now preparing for further countermeasures, to protect our interests and our businesses if negotiations fail".