Ireland’s carbon budget

In December 2024, the Climate Change Advisory Council (CCAC) published its proposal for the next series of Carbon Budgets for Ireland. The Carbon Budget represents the total amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that Ireland can release within each Carbon Budget period as legislated for in the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021.

In Ireland, this is measured over each Carbon Budget five-year period in megatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂eq) on an economy-wide basis while currently excluding emissions from aviation and maritime. At any point in time the current and next Carbon Budgets are committed, currently Carbon Budget 1 and 2, while future Carbon Budgets are indicative.

Entering into the period of Carbon Budget 2 required fixing the emissions ceiling for Carbon Budget 3 and setting the indicative ceiling for Carbon Budget 4, which the CCAC has just proposed.

The Council’s proposal is for a Carbon Budget 3 (CB3: 2031-2035) of 160 Mt CO₂eq and a provisional Carbon Budget 4 (CB4: 2036-2040) of 120 Mt CO₂eq. This means a GHG emissions reduction of at least 6.3% on average year on year to 2040 is required to remain within the Carbon Budgets. The proposed Carbon Budgets equate to a 67% reduction in emissions in 2040 compared to the 2018 baseline.

Ireland will need to go to Additional Measures identifies to meet car carbon budgets

Potential penalties

While recent analysis concludes that Ireland is currently on track to meet the first statutory Carbon Budget which covers the period 2021-2025, the EPA forecasts that Ireland will likely exceed its Carbon Budget 1 allowance even with additional measures.

Meeting Carbon Budget 1 requires further emissions reduction, specifically an 8.25% average annual reduction in total GHG emissions in 2024 and 2025. This poses a significant challenge, but it is worth bearing in mind that a 6.8% reduction in total emissions was achieved in 2023.

Any overshoot in emissions during the Carbon Budget 1 period will have lasting impacts across future carbon budgets as the Climate Act mandates that exceedance of Carbon Budgets is carried over at the point of concluding the finalisation of emissions inventories for each Carbon Budget period.

The State could face a cost of €8 billion if it fails to achieve reductions in carbon emissions in 2030, according to an assessment by the Climate Change Advisory Council.

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