Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2023: Consultation Report

Ireland and Northern Ireland’s Transmission System Operators, EirGrid and SONI, recently published a consultation on Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios¹ for the island of Ireland and are seeking feedback on the scenarios.

This publication aims to develop potential future energy scenarios to guide the TSOs in their grid planning and development processes. Our Sustainable Futures team reviews the publication and explains the implications.

The consultation outlines four scenarios for how electricity demand and generation could evolve on the island from 2035 to 2050. The TSOs present the scenarios mindful of SEAI’s upcoming report to the Department of Environment, Climate and Communications (DECC) on an evidence-based decarbonisation pathway to net-zero for the electricity system.

The deadline for responses is the 12^th December 2023.

Have your say on the future all-island grid

Public consultation is a crucial part of the TSOs scenario-based grid planning processes. The consultation offers industry and stakeholders a chance to help shape the scenarios which will be used to firstly identify grid development needs and then to examine the solutions to deliver these needs. 

As such, public engagement and feedback directly influences future grid developments. Stakeholders with current or future reliance on grid capacity should consider submitting a response to the current consultation.

The TSOs are reliant on industry feedback to determine the location and scale of grid reinforcements needed over the medium to long-term. This is particularly pertinent given Ireland’s significant need for grid infrastructure capacity coupled with the relatively modest investments to date.  

Energy transition relies on expansion of electricity grids

The electricity grid is the backbone of the all-island energy system, reliably delivering electricity to millions of customers including industry, farms, businesses, and homes across the island.

The transmission grid is central to our transition to a zero-carbon energy system as it is used to transport carbon free renewable generation from often remote locations into our cities, towns and businesses. Electrification will pay a significant role in the decarbonisation of our heat and transport systems and will require ever more electrical grid capacity.

Ireland is projected to see a tripling in electricity demand from today’s levels by 2050 owing to electrification, population growth, and increased consumption from large energy users⁴.

This will, due to the intermittency of renewables, require a more than 300% growth in generation capacity, and must be transmitted from the point of generation to final consumer seamlessly and without interruption around the clock. Adding to the challenge is the fact that new generation capacity will be decentralised and distributed across the island, and in the case of offshore wind turbines, up to hundreds of kilometres offshore. 

Expanding electricity grids requires significant investment
 

Transmission grids are at risk of becoming the weak link of energy transitions around the globe. While investment in renewable generation assets have doubled since 2010, grid investments have remained the same at around €280bn per year on a global basis⁵.

An increased flow of capital into renewable generation is of course welcome, but wind and solar generation assets face viability issues without a corresponding investment in grid infrastructure. 

Europe are starting to realise the dire and urgent need for grid upgrades, a 60% increase in electricity consumption is expected and intermittent renewable generation capacity is projected to grow from 400 GW today, to 1,000 GW in 2030.  

Consequently, cross-border transmission must double and national distribution grids, 40% of which are more than 40 years old, need to be modernised. In response to this, the European Commission in November 2023 published Grids, the missing link - An EU Action Plan for Grids⁶ aiming to address required infrastructure upgrades required to meet our 2030 objectives.

The report recognises 7 key horizontal challenges and outlines 14 corresponding actions to be implemented starting as early as Q1 2024. Overall, the Commission finds that €584bn must be invested in grid before the end of the decade.

Ireland’s grid challenges mirrors those in Europe and in other countries around the world. The industry unanimously agrees that significant grid investment and a range of new and upgraded infrastructure is crucial to meeting ambitious targets for net zero and high renewables penetration.

Ireland’s Distribution System Operator, ESB Networks, estimates the capital investment required in the 2023 – 2030 period at c. €10bn⁷ . Meanwhile, EirGrid and SONI have reported that €3.3 bn and £326 m of grid investments are needed if 2030 targets are to be met⁸.

Speeding up grid infrastructure projects

The challenge is exacerbated by the complexity and long timelines of developing grid infrastructure. New grid infrastructure projects can take up to 15 years from inception to completion often requiring a wide range of planning permits, stakeholder consultations, political decisions, regulatory compliance, and environmental assessments to proceed.

Grid development also requires a skilled workforce and a secure supply chain, both of which are in high demand and scarce supply around the world.

The global, European and national view seems to be converging on the need for anticipatory grid planning in support of net-zero ambitions meaning that grid solutions delivered are not incremental in nature but rather provide the capacity required to support long-term ambitions. Political and regulatory support for this shift in approach is needed.

The Irish renewables industry have already demonstrated their appetite for a changed grid approach. In Act Now: Accelerating onshore renewable energy in Ireland⁹, key industry stakeholders proposed that strategic grid planning should consider the pipeline of connections required for net zero and employ an anticipatory planning approach, which should include a charging mechanism that incentivises renewable development across the life of the grid asset.

This requires regulatory support for system operator preferred grid developments that strategically delivers the capacity required over the long-term. Effective alleviation of grid constraints should incentivise the use of larger, more efficient generation technologies that can achieve higher capacity factors and thereby maximise the value of grid investments.

To catalyse change, it is vital that members of the public and industry stakeholders who would like to see a strategic approach to grid development, take the opportunity to submit a response to the TES 2023 consultation.

Key takeaways

The TSOs expect that Ireland’s future will incorporate elements of each scenario. By modelling and analysis these individual scenarios, EirGrid and SONI creates a portfolio of possible outcomes with the aim to develop the best possible system and being prepared for a variety of outcomes. Resulting from their analysis, the TSOs presents four key takeaways:

• Ireland’s electricity demand will more than double by 2050 due to significant population growth combined with increasing electrification across all sectors.
• Higher penetration of renewables on the grid will require significant demand flexibility (20-50%) and energy efficiency to reduce pressure on the electricity system and reduce peak loads.
• The scenarios show Ireland and Northern Ireland achieving a net zero power system from 2040-2050 though this will be a very challenging process requiring very significant development of network capacity and zero carbon services.
• The net zero power system will require a balanced portfolio of renewable generation technologies supported by energy storage, firm dispatchable capacity and interconnections with a particular increase required for offshore wind, solar PV, battery storage of various duration, green fuels, negative emission technologies, and increased electricity connections.