The rate of global temperature rise has doubled since 2015 [1] and is primarily attributed to anthropogenic (human-generated) greenhouse gas emissions. The opportunity to limit warming to the 1.5°C threshold – intended to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change - is greatly diminished.
The first 12-month average above 1.5°C was recorded in 2023–2024 [2], and analysis indicates that this threshold may be surpassed on a sustained basis by 2030 [1]. Consequently, the European Scientific Advisory Board (ESAB) recommends that the EU prepare for global warming of 2.8–3.3°C by 2100 and conduct stress-testing for more severe scenarios [3].