Economics, ego & innovation

Anthony Scaramucci at the KPMG Board Leadership Centre

When it comes to insights from the intersection of international business and politics, there are few people as uniquely qualified as Anthony Scaramucci, the speaker at the latest Board Leadership Centre (BLC) event in Dublin.

Scaramucci worked on US President Donald Trump’s first election campaign and was, famously, White House Director of Communications for 11 days, but also has a decades-long career in finance as co-founder of SkyBridge Capital and previously at Goldman Sachs.

A Harvard Law graduate and now an author and co-host of the podcast The Rest is Politics: US, Scaramucci brought a global perspective to a wide-ranging conversation with broadcaster and author Dearbhail McDonald. “You go through a lot in politics; you’ve got to be able to take the punches,” said Scaramucci, a sentiment that will be familiar to business leaders and board directors.

Amid a period of economic complexity and disruption, the timing was good. The KPMG CEO Outlook 2025 shows that business leaders are optimistic about jobs and growth but 77% of Irish CEOs – almost four out of five – feel under greater pressure to deliver, compared to 59% among global CEOs.

“These BLC events are all about leadership, and you, as directors, play a critical role in leading your companies - in decision-making and challenging management,” Eamon Dillon, Partner and BLC Lead in Ireland, told the well-attended event. “Our role in KPMG is to bring you the best insights from around the world to support and help you.”

Seeing a soft landing

For businesses and board members trying to plot a path forward, the outlook is unclear. Scaramucci is now critical of US policies, including wide-ranging tariffs on imports into the US, which he says are harming the American economy and its reputation for equality of opportunity, as well as the wider world economy.

Data tracked by SkyBridge Capital shows that US shipping volumes and port deliveries are falling, according to Scaramucci. “The economy is weakening in the US. The tariff policies are hurting. Trucking and rail are way down, and that always spells a near-term recession,” he said.

He also referenced the amount of debt in the US financial system and the oversized role of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks in the markets. “As someone that's been on Wall Street for 37 years, lived through nine corrections and a global financial crisis, will we eventually have a correction? The answer is, obviously, yes, of course we will,” he said.

On the positive side, the correction may well be soft: financial institutions are much better capitalised than in the past and the US Federal Reserve has scope to cut interest rates. For board members, there is no end in sight to the uncertainty, so forward planning is essential.

The economy is weakening in the US. The tariff policies are hurting. Trucking and rail are way down, and that always spells a near-term recession.

Anthony Scaramucci

Strategy and supply chain

How do board members carry out effective horizon-scanning in the current environment? Despite talk of the world economic map being redrawn, America still accounts for 26% of the world's GDP and has deep trading ties with Ireland and the EU – simply cutting it off is not an option.

“What I would say to everybody in this room is, to the best of your capability, get involved with an understanding of the tariff situation in the United States,” said Scaramucci. “If you're sitting on a board where they're doing business in the US, you have to be well-versed in that macroeconomic situation and you have to have a strategy.”

That strategy goes deep into the supply chain. Boeing, for example, builds its planes in the US but as much as 60% of the parts are imported from overseas, so it is heavily affected by tariffs, even as a US company.

“If I was on a board of a publicly traded company anywhere in the world, I would want to be adding value by coming up with innovative ideas on what we need to do to get through the near term,” said Scaramucci. “We have three years to go, what do we do?”

If you're sitting on a board where they're doing business in the US, you have to be well-versed in that macroeconomic situation and you have to have a strategy.

Anthony Scaramucci

The China question

The US-China relationship, and the threat of further tariffs on China, is one factor clouding the economic outlook and causing the markets to whipsaw. Scaramucci said the relationship between the countries is more co-dependent than it might appear.

“In the global trade game, China has a lot more cards than Trump would like to admit,” said Scaramucci. “It's not just the rare earth minerals; China is effectively still America’s biggest manufacturing centre; our businesses are conjoined with each other.”

He traced the inter-reliance to the US “rightly or wrongly” supporting China becoming a member of the World Trade Organisation in 2001. “We signalled to our companies it was okay to offshore manufacturing in China, and we completely and wholly underestimated China. Now they’ve got a lot of cards.”

However, China lacks the currency strength of the US, with the dollar dominating as the world’s primary reserve currency. “China will cut a deal with Trump, and Trump needs them for so many different reasons, he'll cut a deal with them too. We’ll resolve the rare earths thing,” Scaramucci predicted.

Cooling on climate

The environment and sustainability have been big priority areas for boards, but that emphasis has been diluted, in the US at least. The US administration is stalling renewable energy projects in favour of fossil fuels, even as China is investing heavily in solar and wind energy.

For board members with so many issues to contend with, the signals can be confusing: is climate still a priority? Scaramucci was unequivocal: “On clean energy, you would be irresponsible as a director if you didn't have a strategy, because this is the big challenge for this generation,” he said.

Criticising the “poor policy behaviour” from the US, he urged board members to think as global citizens. “In a global society, we're not thinking about each other in a way that's transformative. We don't have leadership, particularly in the United States, but we have got to do it with or without the political leadership.” In that environment, business leaders have a role to play for future generations.

Optimistic innovation

Even as alarm bells ring about a possible AI bubble, one bright spot in Scaramucci’s outlook is the impact of “exponential technology” of all kinds. “I'm an optimist, because I study the trends of technological advancement, and I study the exponential opportunity for further prosperity,” he said.

“Yes, our politics is hurting us and we're becoming overly nationalistic and so on, but we are going to get bailed out again by our economic innovation. That typically is what has happened.”

"Humans often think in a linear manner, while technology advances exponentially, he said, citing the example of English economist Thomas Malthus, who feared the dangers of overpopulation and believed there wouldn’t be enough food to sustain a growing population. However, developments in farming equipment, irrigation, fertilisers and even daylight-saving time have significantly increased agricultural production and food availability.

Similarly, ‘peak oil’ fears in the 1980s predicted that energy costs would rocket and systems would collapse; instead, alternatives emerged via fracking and renewables, as well as energy conservation. “I’m just making a point: the things that we worry about, they don't come to pass the way we expect,” said Scaramucci. That in itself is a lesson for board members in planning beyond the obvious.

The things that we worry about, they don't come to pass the way we expect.

Anthony Scaramucci

An Irish solution

Scaramucci had positive words for Ireland’s “40-year economic transformation”, describing Irish governments as historically centre-left but with centre-right tax policy. “I feel that tax policy is post-partisan, where it's not left-leaning policy or right-leaning policy, it’s right or wrong [policy]. I think it's good for the people, as evidenced by your education system,” he said.

In contrast, the US is locked in a game of “padel tennis” where Republican governments bring in right-leaning policies and Democrats swap to left-leaning policies. “That’s not helping companies do their planning for capital allocation purposes. In Ireland, you say to the corporations, ‘here's the number’ and you stick with that number,” he said.

What would he say to board members of Ireland Inc? “I wouldn't be changing much,” said Scaramucci. “The key thing to focus on, is encouraging political leaders to maintain the good policies that have put Ireland in such a wonderful, prosperous position over the last 25 years”.

I feel that tax policy is post-partisan, where it's not left-leaning policy or right-leaning policy, it’s right or wrong.

Anthony Scaramucci

Avoiding ego

Scaramucci, the son of a crane driver, left board members one unvarnished lesson from his time at the White House: don’t be tempted to act on ego. “I had the chance to work for the American president, and it was too compelling for me, it was too tempting,” he said.

“I made an ego-based and pride-based decision, and it was one of the biggest mistakes of my life,” he said. “Lesson number one: try not to do that in your personal life, in your business career, in your investing decisions.”

In a global example, he praised the EU for not indulging its ego and responding to US tariffs with retaliatory tariffs that would further damage the world economy. “It took a lot of guts to make that move,” he said. “Really good leadership is not expedient. If you want to be a good board member, the first emotional reaction is probably not the best reaction. Get your ego out of it, get your pride out of it.”

After he was fired from the White House, a crisis communications expert recommended that Scaramucci “disappear for five years” until the episode had blown over. Instead, he opted to go on TV chat shows and face down his critics. “The leadership lesson is: Face the music. Be accountable,” he said.

Really good leadership is not expedient. If you want to be a good board member, the first emotional reaction is probably not the best reaction. Get your ego out of it, get your pride out of it.

Anthony Scaramucci