Climate Risk

What matters

The South West is one of the most exposed regions to climate change impacts nationally due to its direct Atlantic exposure, extensive coastline, low-lying coastal settlements, and high-rainfall river catchments.

The South West also has a strong economic dependence on climate-sensitive sectors with the region having a disproportionally large share of the national dairy herd and associated processing capacity, positioning the region as a national emissions hotspot.

At the same time, tourism - underpinning economic activity across Cork, Kerry and surrounding rural communities - faces growing pressure to balance continued growth with decarbonisation and sustainability.

Adaptation and mitigation

Effective response to climate change requires a dual focus on adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation centres on reducing exposure to climate impacts, including flooding and windstorms, while mitigation targets the region’s emissions profile, particularly in agriculture and tourism.

These objectives are inseparable: both sectors are highly climate‑dependent and central to the regional economy, and progress in one cannot be achieved at the expense of the other.

Across the South West, climate change is resulting in increases in rising temperatures, changes in the frequency and intensity of rainfall and rising sea levels.

These changes will intensify flooding across low-lying coastal towns and river catchments and accelerate erosion of soft coastlines. Recent estimates indicate that up to 21,800 households across Cork and Kerry are at risk flooding under a mid-range future climate change scenario. 

Without appropriate adaptation, projected sea level rise and increased precipitation will result in more frequent and severe flooding and erosion.

Agriculture

The South West is at the heart of Ireland’s dairy-dominated agricultural sector. Its grass-fed farms are highly sensitive to climate variability, with productivity tightly coupled to climate conditions such as temperature and rainfall.

Agriculture is also one is Ireland’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for 37.9% of national emissions in 2024.

Changes in climate conditions already under way have decreased predictability and increased volatility for the agricultural sector resulting in fodder shortages across the region in 2018 and 2022.

Climate projections for the South West indicate an increase in average temperature, which may support grass growth. However, this is likely to be offset by more summer droughts and soil moisture deficits, constraining grass growth and leading to feed shortages, economic losses and animal welfare risks.

National climate targets and evolving Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) supports are accelerating a shift away from production expansion towards more resilient lower-input systems.

Long-term sustainability will require a reorientation of farming practice, with better soil and water management and greater diversity of land use. Hedgerow restoration and targeted rewetting are among the measures that can reduce emissions while delivering wider benefits for biodiversity and flood resilience.

Tourism and climate change

Tourism is also a significant source of emissions, particularly through transport and accommodation. Ireland’s Tourism Climate Change Sectoral Adaptation Plan (2025–2030) identifies flooding, coastal erosion, storms and changing climate suitability as priority risks, particularly in Atlantic-facing regions such as Cork and Kerry.

While climate change is projected to result in an extended tourism season which represents an opportunity, increased demand must not come at the cost of the natural assets that define the South West’s appeal.

Long-term competitiveness of the tourism sector will depend on managing climate risk while repositioning the region as a high-quality, nature-positive destination that attracts visitors through the quality of its offer rather than footfall volume.