German-British Business Outlook

Ten years on from the Brexit referendum, many businesses are hoping for some relief during the forthcoming review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement – the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’, or ‘TCA’ for short – between the European Union and the United Kingdom. They now see this as an opportunity to remove existing barriers to cross-border trade. This is a key finding of our German-British Business Outlook 2026, which we have produced for the eighth time in collaboration with the British Chamber of Commerce in Germany (BCCG). 103 companies operating in the German-British economic corridor were surveyed for this report.

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German-British Business Outlook 2026: Survey highlights areas of tension

Growth opportunities versus trade barriers: assessments of the state of German-British economic relations by more than 100 companies.

Hopes for improvements in mobility, customs and border procedures

At the heart of the hoped-for TCA momentum are concrete improvements in mobility, customs and border procedures, certifications and market access. At the same time, expectations of policymakers are growing:

53 per cent prioritise improved mobility for business travellers and employees. Almost as many (49 per cent) are calling for more efficient customs and border procedures.
Around a third would like to see mutual recognition of product standards and better market access for services.
71 per cent expect the UK government to improve trade relations with the EU across the board. In particular, there are calls for fewer trade barriers (47 per cent) and a simplified regulatory framework (32 per cent).
73 per cent would like to see less bureaucracy in bilateral trade from the German federal government. Six out of ten companies are also calling for strong support from Germany for a new EU-UK trade agreement, whilst half of the companies are calling for closer bilateral cooperation at both the political and economic levels.

To unlock the untapped business potential in the Germany–UK corridor, the review of the EU–UK agreement must now be taken seriously; the persistent trade barriers must be removed and concrete measures to facilitate trade must be agreed. Only then will investment rise again and growth potential be realised

Andreas Glunz

Managing Partner International Business

KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft

Positive business outlook, but trade in goods remains at pre-Brexit

Almost half (48 per cent) of companies achieved higher turnover in 2025 than in the previous year, whilst 42 per cent also saw a positive trend in profits. For 2026, a clear majority of 62 per cent expect an increase in turnover. Looking five years ahead, as many as 81 per cent anticipate rising turnover.

Trade in goods, by contrast, remains well below pre-Brexit levels. Trade volumes have slumped by almost 40 per cent since 2015. In value terms, the decline was considerably smaller at 7 per cent. Inflation and exceptionally high gold exports have partly masked the trend in physical trade.

Willingness to invest remains subdued

The positive business outlook has not yet led to rising investment. 61 per cent do not plan to make any investments in the United Kingdom in 2026, 20 percentage points more than in the previous year. Even in the longer term, willingness to invest remains cautious.

35 per cent of companies cite political uncertainties in the United Kingdom as the main obstacle. This is followed by customs procedures and trade frictions with the EU, as well as weak demand prospects in the UK.

Digitalisation, defence and the energy transition offer growth opportunities

At the same time, companies see considerable potential in the UK market. More than half (54 per cent) regard its growth prospects as a key business opportunity. For 44 per cent, transforming industries and new business areas are also coming into focus.

Digitalisation is particularly attractive: 57 per cent see growth opportunities here. Defence and security are also emerging as an important growth area for half of the companies. The energy transition also offers new opportunities, according to 43 per cent of companies; furthermore, collaborations with start-ups and in third-party markets are gaining in importance.

Companies expect further rapprochement between the EU and the UK

Three-quarters of those surveyed expect further rapprochement between the United Kingdom and the EU. Although these expectations are ten percentage points more cautious than last year, they remain at a high level. Closer ties with the EU would also boost the willingness to invest: 85 per cent state that the UK’s renewed EU membership would have a positive influence on their investment decisions; 58 per cent even expect a strongly positive effect.

The German-British Business Outlook 2026 thus points to positive growth prospects, albeit with continuing hurdles. A key factor will be the extent to which the forthcoming review of the existing EU–UK trade agreement actually results in concrete measures to facilitate trade, mobility, the recognition of product standards and market access for services.