Artificial intelligence is shaping today how economies grow, how companies compete, and how societies build trust.
Decisions are increasingly being made under conditions of high uncertainty – often without reliable, structured future scenarios that systematically show how the global AI environment could develop.
This is precisely where our English-language study ‘AI Geopolitics 2030: The new power distribution through strategic AI sovereignty’ comes in, which was produced in collaboration with the German AI Association.
Why AI leadership is more than technological excellence
Our Strategic AI Capability Index (SACI) enables a comparison of the AI capabilities of the United States, Europe and China.
The index is based on three pillars – economy & infrastructure, strategy & governance, and research, development & skills – and combines a global survey with in-depth secondary research.
All results are standardised on a scale of 0 to 100, enabling robust, cross-regional comparisons for strategic decision-making.
Strategic AI Capability Index: A meaningful basis for strategic AI comparisons
The index shows a clear pattern: lasting AI leadership does not come from isolated technological breakthroughs, but from the ability to transform potential into impact – consistently, responsibly and on a large scale.
The most important findings of the current survey in concrete figures
The results of the study show:
Scenarios for 2040: Four possible visions of the future of AI
Based on the SACI index, the study analyses possible development paths for global AI architecture and condenses them into four scenarios for 2040. The four scenarios cover two key dimensions:
- the distribution of AI power (distributed vs. centralised), and
- the geopolitical order (cooperative vs. fragmented).