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      Banks, asset managers and other financial service providers are facing a unique opportunity to further develop their business models: blockchain-based prediction markets open up the possibility of trading events themselves – not just their effects. 

      Our experts explain what this means for the industry and how market participants can position themselves to strengthen their competitiveness in the compact white paper "More than a game (in german).

      Prediction markets open up innovative options for risk management and strategy: instead of interpreting complex contract terms and using derivatives for this purpose, they are based on individual verifiable event questions such as: 'Will Company X repay its bonds by 31 December?'. The answer is clear: yes or no. Trading is automated and transparent via so-called smart contracts. In future, this will create an ecosystem that challenges traditional structures and promotes new platform models. 

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      What decentralised innovation based on blockchain now makes possible.

      Overview of key aspects of the white paper


      • Direct event trading instead of indirect hedging

        Prediction markets enable digital trading in specific events, without room for interpretation or legal disputes.

      • Technological basis: blockchain and smart contracts

        Decentralised platforms use distributed ledgers, oracle systems and automated market makers to create transparent, tamper-proof markets with constant liquidity.

      • Unlimited trading opportunities

        From political decisions on climate targets to corporate takeovers: almost every measurable event can be defined as a tradable commodity.

      • Strategic opportunities for banks

        Transformation from product seller to platform operator: new sources of income through fees, liquidity provision and premium analyses.

      • Challenges and risks

        Complexity, regulatory uncertainty and technical limitations such as scalability and oracle security remain key issues.



      New Ways – the banking magazine: Issue 2

      Banking between geopolitical risks and pressure to innovate.
      Digital world map

      Your contact persons

      Christoph Betz

      Partner, Financial Services

      KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft

      Kristian Fitschen

      Senior Manager, Financial Service

      KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft