The study develops scenarios and options for action on AI sovereignty in Europe on the basis of a strategic AI capability index.

How AI is changing the global distribution of power - and what options Europe has.

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Artificial intelligence is shaping today how economies grow, how companies compete, and how societies build trust.

Decisions are increasingly being made under conditions of high uncertainty – often without reliable, structured future scenarios that systematically show how the global AI environment could develop. This is precisely where our English-language study "AI Geopolitics 2030: The new power distribution through strategic AI sovereignty" comes in, which was produced in collaboration with the German AI Association.

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AI Geopolitics 2030: The new power distribution through strategic AI sovereignty

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Why AI leadership is more than technological excellence

Our Strategic AI Capability Index (SACI) enables a comparison of the AI capabilities of the United States, Europe and China.

The index is based on three pillars – economy & infrastructure, strategy & governance, and research, development & skills – and combines a global survey with in-depth secondary research. All results are standardised on a scale of 0 to 100, enabling robust, cross-regional comparisons for strategic decision-making.

Strategic AI Capability Index: A meaningful basis for strategic AI comparisons

The index shows a clear pattern: lasting AI leadership does not come from isolated technological breakthroughs, but from the ability to turn potential into impact – consistently, responsibly and on a large scale.

The most important findings of the current survey in concrete figures

The results of the study show that:

the US leads in AI capabilities with a score of 75.2 points, driven by rapid corporate adoption, deep capital markets and scalable infrastructure.
Europe scores 48.7 points – strong in governance and responsible AI, but held back by fragmentation and slow commercialisation.
China is close behind with 48.2 points: impressive industrial capabilities and hardware sovereignty, but less international openness and less public trust.

Each model has advantages and disadvantages. The key will be to align technology, governance and talent in a way that meets regional priorities while remaining globally competitive.

Scenarios for 2040: Four possible visions of the future of AI

Based on the SACI index, the study analyses possible development paths for global AI architecture and condenses them into four scenarios for 2040. The four scenarios cover two key dimensions:

the distribution of AI power (distributed vs. centralised), and
the geopolitical order (cooperative vs. fragmented).

1. Federated Future – Cooperation as a model for success

Distributed AI power in a cooperative order – common standards and interoperable infrastructures promote trust.

Global AI ecosystems are created through common standards, interoperable infrastructures and coordinated governance. Those who enable integration and coordination gain influence. For Europe: actively shape standards and use interoperability as a strategic advantage.

3. Sovereign Blocs – Regional Autonomy

Regional alliances with centralised AI – power concentrated in geopolitical blocs.

Autonomous systems are based on security, trust and cultural priorities. Competitiveness comes from internal coherence rather than global dominance. For Europe: opportunity for a 'Europe First' strategy. However, this requires speed and scale.

2. Platform Supremacy – Power of the platforms

Platform dominance in a fragmented world order – global providers control computing power, models and energy.

State sovereignty remains intact, while operational power is concentrated in the hands of a few tech giants. Europe's challenge: reducing dependencies and building its own resilient platforms.

4. Algorithmic Convergence – Control through technology

Global technological convergence despite political fragmentation – control through technology architecture.

While states draw borders, AI systems are growing closer together. Architecture and learning logic determine the distribution of power. State levers of influence are losing their effectiveness. Europe's levers: governance and key technologies for algorithmic systems.