Ten macroeconomic trends in 2023

we expect China’s economic policies to remain supportive in 2023. Benefiting from a low base and improved macro environment, China’s GDP is expected to grow 5.2% in 2023.

In particular, we anticipate 10 trends for macro economy next year:

1. China’s economic growth rate is expected to accelerate next year, but recovery is still weak.
2. China will exit from its zero-Covid policy. As this occurs, the vaccination rate for the elderly, medical resource preparation, and media guidance are of particular importance.
3. Consumption should improve with relaxed quarantine measures and household savings should help economic recovery.
4. High-tech manufacturing and renewable energy will lead investment growth.
5. Fiscal and monetary policy remain supportive and policy banks are expected to play an important role in funding.
6. The property market will likely remain weak, but the drag on overall growth should lessen.
7. Global economic growth is expected to slow, weighing on China’s exports.
8. The Fed is expected to slow its rate hikes, reducing pressures on RMB exchange rate and capital outflows.
9. Geopolitics remains complex and volatile and companies may need to conduct scenario planning to mitigate risk.
10. Basic research investment is accelerating and national security is continuing to be a key theme for China’s future development.

Japanese Version