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      Consumer and retail leaders are no longer navigating isolated disruptions. Instead, they operate in an environment where change is constant, multi-layered, and often contradictory.

      What differentiates organizations today is no longer their ability to predict the future. It is their ability to respond, adapt, and excel in decision making under uncertainty - a shift that is redefining how strategy is developed and executed across the sector.

      Stéphane Nusbaumer

      Partner, Sector Head Consumer Goods, Audit Corporates Western Switzerland

      KPMG Switzerland

      Miles Underwood

      Partner, Digital Transformation

      KPMG Switzerland

      Key takeaways

      • Business resilience and organizational agility are becoming core strategic capabilities in consumer and retail

      • Consumer value is increasingly multi-dimensional and often contradictory

      • Growth is shifting from volume to value, requiring explicit trade-offs

      • AI is reshaping the customer journey and introducing disintermediation risk

      • Readiness, not certainty, is emerging as the key source of competitive advantage

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      Learn how leading organizations are responding to changing consumer expectations, AI disruption and economic volatility.


      Volatility is structural and reshaping leadership

      Consumer and retail leaders face structural volatility and shifting demand.

      Volatility has become a structural feature of the Consumer goods, Retail & Luxury sector rather than a temporary disruption. Supply chains remain under pressure, increasing the importance of supply chain resilience across sectors.

      At the same time, growth trajectories vary widely across markets, requiring organizations to continuously adapt their strategies. These dynamics reflect increasing consumer sector volatility, ongoing retail transformation, and broader demand shifts across the retail sector.

      At the same time, consumer expectations have become more complex. Value is now multi-dimensional, combining price, convenience, trust, sustainability, and personalization. These expectations are often contradictory, making it difficult for organizations to meet all demands simultaneously.

      These pressures are converging into a fundamental leadership challenge:

      • How to deliver short-term performance
      • While maintaining long-term strategic credibility?

      This raises a critical question for leaders: how to balance sustainability and pricing in retail while delivering on both value and brand expectations.

      Investors expect clear returns from transformation, while AI, workforce capabilities, and ESG considerations are converging into a single performance agenda.

      The result is a leadership challenge that cannot be solved by optimizing for one dimension. It requires a fundamentally different approach to strategy and execution.

      Resilience and agility are now board-level disciplines.
      Stéphane Nusbaumer

      Sector Head Consumer Goods

      KPMG Switzerland

      Stéphane Nusbaumer

      Resilience is becoming a strategic capability

      Business resilience and organizational agility are no longer defensive concepts. They define how organizations compete in today’s environment.

      Leaders are expected to detect early signals, accelerate decision-making, and mobilize change faster than competitors often without complete information. What differentiates leading organizations is not their ability to predict disruption, but their ability to respond effectively when it occurs. Resilience is therefore shifting from a risk function to a strategic enabler.

      In practice, this requires organizations to:

      • strengthen their ability to detect and interpret market signals
      • shorten decision-making cycles and strengthen strategic agility across the organization
      • balance global scale with local responsiveness
      • regularly simulate unpredictable scenarios to build the organisation’s muscle memory in responding

      Rather than building more complex strategies, leading organizations focus on creating simplified, adaptable operating models that allow them to react quickly to changing conditions.

      Ensure that your most critical operations continue to perform while protecting your financial stability during times of disruption.

      Consumer expectations are becoming contradictory

      Consumer behavior trends are becoming more complex and increasingly difficult to address through traditional segmentation.
       

      Today’s consumers

      • prioritize value, but expect quality and convenience
      • demand personalization, but worry about privacy
      • seek low prices, yet expect sustainable solutions

      These conflicting expectations create a new challenge: value is no longer one-dimensional. Organizations cannot meet all expectations simultaneously. Instead, they must define where to compete and make deliberate choices about what they will not offer.

      At the same time, consumer behavior trends and demand patterns are shifting structurally.

      Health and wellness trends are already reshaping consumption

      • Global wellness spending exceeds USD 5.6 trillion

      • New behaviors, including GLP-1 therapies, are influencing food, apparel, and lifestyle categories.

      Consumers expect fast and low cost, while also demanding premium and sustainable offerings. No business can deliver all at the same time.
      Stéphane Nusbaumer

      Sector Head Consumer Goods

      KPMG Switzerland

      AI is reshaping the customer relationship

      AI in retail is no longer limited to optimizing operations. It is fundamentally changing how customers discover, evaluate, and purchase products. AI-driven shopping agents are moving into the heart of the customer journey affecting:

      • product discovery
      • recommendations
      • purchasing decisions

      This creates a structural risk for retailers and brands: disintermediation.

      As consumers increasingly rely on external platforms or AI agents, organizations risk losing:

      • customer visibility
      • direct relationships
      • access to first-party data

      For leaders, the implication is clear:
      • Ensure visibility in emerging “agentic” channels
      • Develop proprietary capabilities where needed
      • Strengthen data ownership and customer relationships

      Growth is shifting from volume to value

      In many mature markets, growth is no longer driven by increasing volumes. Health trends, cost-conscious behavior, and sustainability considerations are reducing consumption levels in several categories. This creates a structural shift: growth must increasingly come from pricing, product mix, and differentiated value propositions.

      Organizations can no longer rely on scale alone as retail transformation continues to reshape competitive advantage. Instead, they must redefine how value is created and delivered to customers.

      From capabilities to action: no-regret moves and trade-offs

      While future developments remain uncertain, several actions consistently create value.

      Four “no-regret” moves stand out

      • Data-driven decision-making

      • Scenario simulation

      • Digital literacy across the organization

      • Enhanced consumer understanding

      These capabilities enable faster decision-making, stronger organizational agility, and greater business resilience.

      At the same time, leadership is increasingly defined by trade-offs. Organizations must decide:

      • which customer segments to prioritize
      • how quickly to respond to demand shifts
      • how to balance speed with certainty
      • how to structure their operating model

      These decisions ultimately define where to compete and how to win.

      Swiss market perspective: Pragmatism and foundations matter

      In Switzerland, many organizations are still focused on strengthening fundamentals before scaling more advanced capabilities.

      • Key observations regarding Swiss consumer behavior and market dynamics include:

        • Data quality and governance remain critical challenges
        • Organizational silos often limit end-to-end decision-making
        • Complexity must be actively reduced, not increased
      • At the same time, changing Swiss consumer behavior and market conditions create additional pressures for Swiss retailers:

        At the same time, changing Swiss consumer behavior and market conditions create additional pressures for Swiss retailers:

        • low-margin business models
        • strong competition in discount and cross-border retail
        • high expectations on quality and price
      • This reinforces the need to:

        • maintain a clear value proposition
        • focus on operational excellence in core business
        • build cultural readiness for workforce transformation

      As highlighted from practitioner experience, success depends on maintaining a strong alignment between strategy, value proposition, and customer perception even in times of rapid change.

      Implications for organizations

      Consumer and retail leaders are entering a phase where volatility, technological change, and shifting demand are all occurring simultaneously. These dynamics will shape the future of retail and redefine sources of competitive advantage.

      • Anchor on the knowns

        • Strengthen resilience and operational excellence
        • Refine value propositions
        • Demonstrate returns from transformation
      • Explore the unknowns

        • Invest in retail innovation, experimentation and innovation
        • Monitor emerging trends early
        • Build partnerships and ecosystem capabilities

      The organizations that succeed will not necessarily be those that get every prediction right, but those that are ready to respond when it matters most.

      Explore how these insights apply to your business

      To explore how these themes apply to your organization and support long-term retail transformation, please visit our Consumer & Retail insights and service pages or reach out to discuss your specific priorities. 

      This topic has also been the focus of a recent client session. If you would like to receive the recording or be included in future sessions, please do not hesitate to contact us. 
       

      Our industry experts

      Stéphane Nusbaumer

      Partner, Sector Head Consumer Goods, Audit Corporates Western Switzerland

      KPMG Switzerland

      Miles Underwood

      Partner, Digital Transformation

      KPMG Switzerland

      Florin Krapp

      Partner, Sector Head Retail, Audit

      KPMG Switzerland

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