State of the Belgian banks 2026

This State of the Banks report presents our perspective on the Belgian banking sector, combining analysis of the annual and risk disclosures of FY2025 from the six Belgian banks under ECB supervision, together with qualitative insights derived from a dedicated workshop held in May 2026 with HR leadership from four large banks, conducted in collaboration with Febelfin. This dual lens reflects the reality that financial performance and strategic workforce transformation are increasingly interdependent. 

Belgian banks entered 2026 in a profitable state, but under growing structural pressure. FY2025 results confirm the resilience of the sector, with income growth holding up and asset quality remaining broadly stable despite a weakening macro-economic backdrop. At the same time, the analysis reveals a widening gap in how institutions are positioned for what comes next. The central challenge is no longer financial resilience, but strategic adaptation.

That divergence is visible across several dimensions. Business models are gradually shifting, with fee income becoming a more important driver of growth as net interest income normalizes. Cost discipline has been maintained despite wage inflation and rising regulatory levies, but often through cuts in discretionary spending rather than structural reduction. At the same time, early signs of stress are emerging in parts of the corporate portfolio, with a more uncertain outlook for credit quality into 2026.

Technology and transformation are important differentiators, but not the only ones. Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved into scaled use cases in areas such as financial crime and customer servicing, yet the broader picture is one of uneven execution. Differences in legacy infrastructure, workforce readiness, and governance maturity are creating a dispersion in how effectively banks translate technology investment into tangible outcomes.

The external environment reinforces these internal divergences. Geopolitical uncertainty, regulatory change, and evolving ESG expectations are increasingly shaping provisioning decisions, investment priorities, and management attention, with banks making different strategic trade-offs in response.

Ultimately, the banks that will outperform are those that convert strong current performance into sustained adaptation, by aligning business model evolution, risk management, and transformation at the required pace.

The report is intended to support professionals, stakeholders, and industry practitioners in understanding the evolving challenges and opportunities shaping the banking landscape. We welcome any feedback on this report and encourage you to reach out to us for further discussions.

FY2025 results confirm the continued robustness of Belgian banks’ operating performance, supported by resilient revenue generation and disciplined cost control. While net interest income remains a key earnings driver, early signs of normalization are emerging, with margin compression expected as interest rate dynamics evolve. Fee and commission income is therefore becoming an increasingly important component of earnings diversification, though with varied success across institutions.

On the cost side, banks have managed to contain operating expenses despite inflationary pressures, including wage increases and higher regulatory contributions. However, this discipline has often been achieved through short-term measures rather than structural efficiency gains, raising questions about the sustainability of current cost trajectories.

From a risk perspective, asset quality has remained broadly stable, with low levels of non-performing exposures. Nevertheless, forward-looking indicators point to a gradual increase in credit risk, particularly within segments of the corporate portfolio that remain sensitive to macroeconomic uncertainty. At the same time, evolving regulatory expectations, including on capital planning, ESG risk integration, and stress testing, continue to shape risk management practices.

Overall, while the sector remains well-capitalized and resilient, the challenge lies in anticipating and managing emerging risks while sustaining profitability in a less supportive environment.

The transformation of the banking workforce is emerging as a critical determinant of future competitiveness, particularly in the context of accelerating adoption of artificial intelligence. Insights from the May 2026 workshop with HR leadership highlight that AI is no longer a theoretical topic, but an operational reality, with banks deploying use cases across financial crime, customer interaction, and internal efficiency processes.

While AI adoption is accelerating, banks are still developing their strategic workforce planning capabilities, creating increasing urgency to address challenges around reskilling, role redesign, and long-term employability. Key priorities include moving to personalized, role-based learning, proactively managing displacement risks, particularly for low-adaptability, high AI-exposure roles, and enabling internal mobility for more adaptable profiles. Furthermore, banks must balance productivity gains with preserving entry-level roles to sustain the long-term talent pipeline, while safeguarding employee well-being and engagement.

Success will depend on their ability to act as “architects of work” by redistributing tasks between humans and AI, redesigning roles to reflect changing skill demands, and managing structured transitions between roles based on AI exposure and adaptability. This requires a clear leadership narrative, targeted incentives, and strong guardrails for responsible AI use.

In this context, successful transformation will depend on the ability to align technology investment with workforce strategy, ensuring that human capital evolves in step with digital capabilities.