BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 2. Fitch expects Azerbaijan’s current account surplus at 9% of GDP in 2026.
"The current account surplus eased to 4.6% of GDP in 2025 from 6.3% in 2024, reflecting lower oil and gas export revenue and continued import growth. This was partly compensated by a decline in the services deficit due to increase services exports (transport). Higher oil prices, combined with moderate import demand will lift the current account surplus to 9% of GDP in 2026. Lower oil and gas prices will lower the current account surplus in 2027," says the rating agency.
Fitch Ratings expects the consolidated budget surplus to decline in 2027 after rising to a projected 5.6% of GDP in 2026.
"This would reflect lower oil prices, moderate growth in non-oil revenue and fairly stable expenditure, as the government continues to prioritise defence and rebuilding of recovered territories," noted the rating agency analysts.
Meanwhile, KPMG Azerbaijan Deal Advisory experts told Trend that Azerbaijan's external balance has proved highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices.
"Although the state budget for 2026 assumed an average oil price of $65 per barrel, the actual price was around $80 during the first quarter of 2026. While initial forecasts projected a current account surplus of 4-5%, it reached 9.5% in the first quarter. This indicates a high sensitivity to oil prices. However, with the easing of the conflict in the Middle East, the normalization of oil prices puts the sustainability of a 9% full-year surplus into question," said the KPMG.
The Central Bank expects the current account surplus to improve further by the end of the year, supported by higher global energy prices and continued growth in non-oil exports.
Samir Nasirov, Director of the Statistics Department at the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA), earlier said that Azerbaijan recorded a $1.7 billion current account surplus in the first quarter of 2026, equivalent to 9.5% of GDP.
He pointed out that the current account surplus-to-GDP ratio of 9.5% is a positive indicator of macroeconomic stability.