Ukrainian M&A activity in H1 2025 saw increases in terms of both deal volume and value, demonstrating growth against the same period in 2024. Deal volume increased by 26% (34 deals in H1 2025 versus 27 deals in H1 2024), while overall deal value increased by 21% compared to the first half of the previous year (increasing to USD716 million).

Ukrainian M&A deal-making continues unabated despite wartime challenges

According to disclosed data for H1 2025, Ukrainian M&A activity has maintained upward trends since H1 2024, albeit with a slight reduction in transparency: 50% of deal values were disclosed in H1 2025 (down from 59% in the same period of the previous year). Despite just half of all deals disclosing financial details, average transaction value also saw an uptick: rising from USD37 million in H1 2024 to USD42 million in H1 2025. This increase was primarily attributable to two transactions in the period exceeding USD100 million, namely:

Domestic M&A Deals

Domestic M&A deal-making was the main driver of the Ukrainian M&A landscape in H1 2025. The number and value of domestic M&A deals in Ukraine exhibited substantial growth in the period, with USD367 million in domestic activity contributing more than half of the period’s total M&A deal value (compared to approximately 20% for H1 2024).

This robust activity (comprising a total of 25 deals) was underpinned by seven deals in real estate and construction, five in agriculture, four in innovations and technology, two in consumer markets, and two in oil and gas. Ukraine’s innovations and technology sector saw Kyivstar acquire 97% of the shares in ride-hailing and delivery services company Uklon for USD155 million; a standout deal that contributed 42% of the total domestic transaction value for H1 2025. This acquisition also represented one aspect of Kyivstar’s latest investment strategy to accelerate business growth through bold acquisitions, including online medical ordering service Tabletki.ua and health facility booking interface Helsi. Such moves herald the company’s evolution from a telecom operator to a holistic digital ecosystem

Outbound M&A Deals

The first half of 2025 saw a noteworthy increase in outbound M&A activity, with total outbound deal value reaching USD329 million and accounting for almost half of total deal value in H1 2025 (up from USD85 million in 2024). However, the total volume of outbound deals declined with just five transactions recorded in H1 2025 compared to eight in H1 2024. MHP’s aforementioned acquisition of 92% stake in Uvesa was the predominant outbound deal by a significant margin. MHP is now poised to enhance its chicken production capacities within the EU and therefore avoid protectionist measures put in place by the trading bloc, with this strategic transaction enabling MHP to establish itself as a European food producer while still maintaining operations and a local HQ in Ukraine.

Outbound M&A activity in H1 2025 was geographically concentrated in two regions:

  • Europe, which saw a total deal value of USD319 million across four transactions (including the USD300 million deal between MHP and Uvesa)
  • North America, with a single transaction valued at USD10 million.

Inbound M&A Deals

H1 2025 saw the announcement of four inbound transactions (down from six transactions recorded in H1 2024) with a modest USD20 million in total value. In terms of split by sector, two transactions took place in innovations and technology, with the remaining two deals related to transportation and infrastructure sector, and banking and insurance. This industry split could indicate renewed interest from foreign investors in Ukraine's transport and infrastructure, with inbound deals not seen in this sector since 2020.

Inbound M&A activity Ukraine typically involves foreign investors with better access to financing, resulting in higher profile deals compared to other sectors. Consequently, inbound deal activity is more susceptible to external market fluctuations. H1 2024, for example, saw figures significantly influenced by both IT firm Creatio’s USD200 million funding round and NJJ Capital's USD120 million acquisition of telecommunications company Datagroup-Volia. In contrast, inbound deals in H1 2025 saw no comparable transactions and, as such, inbound Ukrainian deal activity for this period is not wholly analogous to the same period of the prior year. It must also be noted that M&A market activity is also subject to natural local fluctuations and tends to increase as the calendar year progresses. As such, drawing any definitive conclusions at this stage would be premature. A comprehensive evaluation of the market's true volume and value will become more apparent with the release of year-end figures, offering a clearer outlook on overall Ukrainian M&A dynamics.

From a geographical perspective, inbound deal activity in H1 2025 was once again predominantly from parties in Europe (50% of deal volume), highlighting continued interest on the part of regional investors. MEA and North America accounted for one deal each, demonstrating generally consistent deal volumes on the part of the former and a 50% decrease for the latter.

Interactive report

We are pleased to announce an interactive version of KPMG M&A Radar in Power BI format, spanning the period from 2013 to H1 2025. This version offers several advantages:

  • The data in KPMG M&A Radar can be filtered by various time periods; including yearly, half-yearly, and quarterly intervals.
  • Most analyses in KPMG M&A Radar are interactive, allowing you to filter the data by period, sector, region, etc. You can easily apply filters using the period selector, sector filter, or drop-down menu on the relevant page.
  • Certain visual elements in KPMG M&A Radar provide access to additional information. Simply click or hover over a specific element in a graph (such as a bar or a section of a doughnut chart) to view more details.

Key sectoral non-M&A investments and developments

H1 2025 has also seen a resurgence of non-M&A investment and re-investment within Ukraine, marked by the expansion of both local and foreign enterprises operating in the region and the introduction of new technologies, primarily in the power and utilities sector. Key sectors driving investment in organic growth in the first half of 2025 included real estate and construction, power and utilities, and agriculture; each demonstrating dynamism and growth through a number of transformative investment decisions.

Real estate and construction

Governmental investment promotion office UkraineInvest, for example, has proactively supported real estate and construction company NovaSklo in an investment amounting to EUR240 million. This development project aims to build Ukraine's largest sheet glass manufacturing plant within the next three years. Other notable investments come from ITOXI, a Korean investment firm which is financing the development of two glass plants to be built by Ukrainian company City One Development.

Ukraine has earmarked USD7.37 billion to cover a range of priority areas in 2025, including housing, education, health, energy, transport, water supply, and demining. And companies are expanding their building material production capacities to meet the expected rise in demand related to restoration efforts over the next three years.

Power and Utilities

The power and utilities sector continues to attract increased investments in innovative technologies to diversify power sources and harden infrastructure against disruption. In building more robust power capacities, for example, mining concern Metinvest will also invest UAH1.4 billion in gas and solar power plants in Kryvyi Rih, while state-oil company Ukrnafta is currently developing a modern combined-cycle heat and power plant with the support of the EBRD.

South Korean corporation Posco International plans a waste-fuelled power plant in Odesa at a cost of USD106 million, providing the region with 12 MW of electricity and 40 MW of heat. Epicenter K is also constructing oil and bioethanol processing plants in the Khmelnytskyi region, providing full cycle processing of agricultural by-products.

Agriculture

Ukraine's agriculture sector, meanwhile, has also seen moves to build resilience and strengthen supply chains. Agro-industrial holding Astarta, for example, successfully secured a USD40 million loan from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Dutch government to build a soybean plant in Poltava, with by-products to be used in biogas facilities. Ukrainian Milk Company, meanwhile, plans expand its cattle farm, launch a new feed-mill, and build a biogas plant with a capacity of 5,000 cubic metres of gas per day. As an exemplar of developing agricultural logistical resilience, Vitagro and DanBred plan to build a USD11 million pig farm in Khmelnytskyi that will eliminate the need to import pigs from Denmark and improve local supply chain independence.

Economic landscape

Inflation in Ukraine increased from 12% in December 2024 to 15.9% as of May 2025, driven by the lingering effects of poor harvests, rising excise prices, increased production costs, labour shortages, and undiminished consumer demand. However, the NBU expects underlying inflationary pressure will gradually ease, countered by a combination of the National Bank’s monetary policy measures, improved electricity supply infrastructure (entailing fewer disruptions to productivity), and the financial impact of anticipated better harvests by the end of 2025. Ukrainian Inflation is therefore expected to slow to less than 9% by year end and meet the NBU’s target rate of 5% in 2026.

In response to this recent spike in inflation, the NBU opted to increase the key policy rate from 13.5% in December 2024 to 14.5% in January 2024, and then again to 15.5% in July 2025. The Bank has also continued its programme of easing foreign exchange restrictions. Measures taken to liberalise currency exchange have been aimed at encouraging additional capital inflows into Ukraine's economy, as well as creating more favourable conditions for investors.

Ukraine’s banking sector, meanwhile, has proven itself sturdy even under challenging conditions. Despite Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian banks have proven their ability to manage credit risks effectively, with the share of non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking sector decreasing to 28.6% as of 1 April 2025 (1.7 percentage points lower than at the start of the year).

In May 2025, Ukrainian businesses reported positive growth expectations across all economic sectors for the first time in a year, indicating improved expectations driven by strong consumer demand, stable energy supplies, international financial support, and business seasonality (specifically in the construction sector). The Business Activity Expectations Index rose to 50.8, flipping from neutral to positive and signalling a cautious yet positive shift in business sentiment, even in the face of restraining factors such as ongoing threats of civilian shelling, destruction of critical infrastructure facilities, inflationary pressure and unfavourable exchange rates, and ongoing labour shortages.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s economic growth is still being suppressed by the ongoing war. The European Commission recently downgraded its forecast of Ukraine’s 2025 GDP growth from 2.8% to 2.0%, while the EBRD revised its own estimates down marginally: from 3.5% to 3.3%. Key factors in these recalculations include the status of ongoing military operations in the country, industrial disruption, a weaker prior agricultural season, and the need for increased spending on energy and defence material imports. 

International financial and technical support

Ukraine and foreign donors have continued coordinated and determined efforts to stabilise the country’s economy in H1 2025, seeking to mitigate the consequences of the ongoing conflict and lay the groundwork for sustainable recovery. The European Union disbursed its third EUR3.5 billion tranche under the Ukraine Facility, part of a EUR50 billion package aimed at supporting Ukraine’s reconstruction and modernisation through to 2027. Ukraine met all 13 of the necessary policy conditions as set out in the Facility across sectors such as energy, agriculture, and border management, bringing the total amount disbursed to over EUR20 billion since 2024. Meanwhile, Ukraine also received GBP2.26 billion (approximately USD3 billion) from the United Kingdom in May 2025 as part of Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) programme. The ERA has already disbursed EUR7 billion in the form of loans from the EU that will be repaid utilising proceeds earned from immobilised Russian sovereign assets, including EUR1 billion in June 2025.

In addition to the Ukraine Facility and ERA support, the EU and the Government of Ukraine have launched the Ukraine Investment Framework (UIF) initiative. The UIF initially aimed to provide EUR1.6 billion in support via accessible finance for Ukrainian SMEs, split between EUR1.4 billion in the form of credit guarantees and a further EUR200 million provided in the form of grants and technical assistance, with priority given to enterprises in affected regions and those founded by internally displaced persons, veterans, and other vulnerable groups. Following the recent Ukraine Recovery Conference, this amount expanded to include a further EUR2.3 billion, including EUR1.8 billion in loan guarantees and EUR580 million in grants. These additional commitments underscore the EU’s commitment to the Framework and confidence in Ukraine’s prospects for recovery.

In order to support UIF implementation, the European Commission is also launching a Call for Expressions of Interest from EU/EEA-based businesses looking to invest in the Ukrainian economy, with focus on energy, critical raw materials, processing industry and manufacturing, construction materials, information technology and digital transformation, and transport and export logistics. The minimum investment size is EUR50 million, with a required 10% equity participation from the participant.

Building on this momentum from the first half of 2025, the recent Ukraine Recovery Conference, held in Rome between July 9–11, saw international partners re-emphasising their unwavering commitment in support of Ukraine's reconstruction efforts. According to then Minister of Economy of Ukraine and anticipated Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, more than 200 agreements and memoranda of understanding worth approximately EUR11 billion were signed over the course of the conference. The primary challenge now lies in translating these signed documents into tangible investments that enable Ukraine’s real economy.

Such efforts include the launch of the European Flagship Fund for the Reconstruction of Ukraine. Backed by collaboration between the European Investment Bank and development banks from partner nations such as France, Germany, Italy, and Poland, the Fund aims to mobilise capital to help rebuild Ukraine’s economy through private equity and should mobilise EUR500 million by 2026.

Beyond reconstruction, the Ukraine Recovery Conference also witnessed large-scale advanced discussions focused on defence industry partnerships and investment. Discussions highlighted opportunities for joint ventures, localising production in Ukraine, and the integrating new technologies in drones, air defence, and electronic warfare systems. These developments mark another vital step towards Ukraine’s economic and strategic recovery as a credible defence partner.

Looking beyond Europe, the International Monetary Fund also continues to remain a strategic pillar of Ukraine’s macroeconomic stability. Ukraine and the IMF reached a staff-level agreement under the four-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) in May 2025. This agreement has the potential to unlock access to an additional USD500 million and would bring total EFF disbursements to USD10.65 billion (out of a total USD15.5 billion available under the Facility). The IMF praised Ukraine’s strong programme implementation in fulfilling all the relevant quantitative targets, demonstrating the country’s commitment to significant progress in structural reforms.

One international partnership in particular dominated the headlines this year, with Ukraine and the United States finally signing a historic agreement to establish a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund at the end of April. It is hoped that the economic agreement will mark a new phase of equal partnership focused on strategic development of critical sectors such as mineral extraction, oil, and gas. The Fund is expected to facilitate greater levels of foreign investment attraction, enable technology transfer, and foster long-term strategic cooperation as part of efforts to rebuild Ukraine.

War risks insurance

H1 2025 saw the Ukrainian market start to feel full impact of prior insurance initiatives, with Aon and the EBRD’s Ukraine Recovery and Reconstruction Guarantee Facility (URGF) becoming fully operational. According to updates published in March, Ukrainian insurance companies such as INGO, Colonnade, and UNIQA have provided EUR5 million in fund-backed coverage so far, and these numbers are only expected to increase.

Insurance company ARX has also collaborated with reinsurance broker McGill and Partners and AI-insurance tech firm FortuneGuard to develop a war risk reinsurance facility for commercial property in Ukraine. FortuneGuard has since become the largest facility in Ukraine for commercial property and investment insurance against war risks.

Despite a diversity of resources, however, access and actual coverage remains limited. This situation prompted Ukraine to propose Draft Law No. 12372 regarding the establishment of a three-tier internal war risk insurance system. First registered at the end of 2024, draft Law No. 12372 has already progressed through legislative review and is expected to eventually culminate in the formation of a State Agency for War Risk Insurance in September 2025. Development of a dedicated national war-risk agency is also anticipated to attract funding from international organisations and private sources, enabling greater engagement with international reinsurers.

Despite challenges, Ukrainian economy and M&A market have potential for continuing growth trends in H2 2025 (outlook)

As Ukraine enters the fourth year of combatting Russia’s full-scale invasion, the country continues to defy wartime challenges by actively advancing M&A activity. Ukrainian M&A in H1 2025 demonstrated a promising upward trajectory, with a 26% increase in deal volume and a 21% increase in deal value compared to H1 2024.

This growth suggests a positive outlook for H2 2025, particularly in key sectors such as agriculture, real estate and construction, and innovations and technology, which accounted for a significant portion of deal activity. The M&A landscape has been supported by positive developments in currency regulation, an increase in the number of available war risk insurance facilities, and the absence of major economic disruptions, creating a more favorable environment for dealmakers. International financial institutions and development agencies have provided crucial support to Ukraine's economy and investors through various initiatives and funding programs.

Among the major challenges that will continue to impact the business operations in H2 2025 remain human capital problems, including labour shortages and skill imbalances. Infrastructure threats and the cautious attitude of foreign investors also present obstacles to sustained growth. These factors are likely to influence the M&A market, requiring careful consideration and strategic planning by investors and businesses operating in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s institutions now implement the necessary changes to address the national labour skills mismatch, while continuing to build energy sector resilience through green initiatives and supply diversification, and making the necessary legal reforms for EU integration. Such measures are needed to lay the foundation for long-term growth and would help to position Ukraine as a reliable partner for potential investors.