M&A Radar 2023: Ukraine

It has been three years since the release of the last KPMG M&A Radar for Ukraine. As is customary, we planned to unveil M&A Radar 2021 at the beginning of 2022. During that period, both KPMG and the global community as a whole were in a moment of collective anticipation waiting for the situation on the Ukrainian border to stabilise.

We approached 2022 with an outlook of cautious optimism, built on the success of the preceding year and in expectation of positive changes stemming from the impactful reforms Ukraine had already made. Unfortunately, reflecting the state of Ukrainian M&A transactions in general, the release of M&A Radar 2021 was abruptly interrupted due to the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

This event effectively put the Ukrainian M&A market on hold, resulting in the cancellation of significant transactions that had commenced at the end of 2021. In 2022, corporations were predominantly focused on addressing war-related challenges which led to a pause in investments. Notably, almost the only sector that continued to develop in 2022 was the Ukrainian IT industry, as companies with a developer base in Ukraine and headquarters in Europe and the USA demonstrated greater adaptability to the War.

In parallel with Ukrainian M&A's specific issues, the global M&A market faced its own challenges driven by surging inflation, rising interest rates, and an uncertain economic outlook. These factors, coupled with Russia’s full-scale invasion, had a significant impact on transactions around the world. As a result, M&A activity in 2023 experienced a sharp downturn, declining to one of the lowest points in a decade in terms of deal value. The total value of global M&A deals dropped by approximately 16%, while the number of transactions decreased by 18%.

Nonetheless, as Ukraine’s economic landscape grappled with the aftermath of the invasion (characterised by a 30% decline in GDP, territorial losses, and significant population outflows), there were some signs of recovery in 2023. Real GDP demonstrated an impressive approximate 5% growth over the last year, surpassing initial forecasts. This rebound underscores the resilience of the Ukrainian economy, significantly supported by crucial military and monetary assistance provided by Ukraine’s international allies.

Looking ahead, investor confidence in Ukraine hinges on a number of factors, including the progress of the ongoing War, judiciary system reforms to combat corruption, and further support from international partners. These immediate concerns hold significant weight and will be keenly observed by investors in the coming year.

Within this intricate economic landscape, the Ukrainian M&A market has undergone dynamic changes. Both domestic and cross-border transactions have had to adapt to the challenges and opportunities arising from the current economic and geopolitical environment. This edition of M&A Radar delves into the relevant recent trends and developments in the Ukrainian M&A market, providing insightful perspectives into the potential for post-invasion recovery, sectoral shifts, and the commendable resilience demonstrated by businesses, investors, and the Ukrainian people whole, all of whom have remained steadfast in the face of adversity.

We are pleased to announce an interactive version of KPMG M&A Radar in Power BI format, spanning the period from 2013 to 2023. This version offers several advantages:

• The data in KPMG M&A Radar can be filtered by various time periods; including yearly, half-yearly, and quarterly intervals.
• Most analyses in KPMG M&A Radar are interactive, allowing you to filter the data by period, sector, region, etc. You can easily apply filters using the period selector, sector filter, or drop-down menu on the relevant page.
• Certain visual elements in KPMG M&A Radar provide access to additional information. Simply click or hover over a specific element in a graph (such as a bar or a section of a doughnut chart) to view more details.