Project SUN 2017

Project SUN 2017 results

The illicit cigarette market in the EU, Norway and Switzerland, 2017.

Illicit cigarettes in the EU, Norway & Switzerland.

Project SUN is KPMG's annual study that estimates the scale and development of the illicit cigarette market in the EU, Norway and Switzerland.


Key findings:

  • In 2017, the Counterfeit and Contraband (C&C) cigarette consumption in the EU was estimated at 8.7% of total consumption, accounting for 44.7 billion cigarettes.
  • The volume of C&C continued to decline; the 7.4% reduction was more pronounced than the legal domestic consumption decline of 2.5%.
  • The C&C proportion of overall consumption was the lowest since 2008.
  • The volume of C&C resulted in a tax loss of €10 billion, making illicit cigarettes one of the largest sources of overall consumption.
  • Despite the overall decline, C&C grew in countries with the largest price differences with source countries.
  • C&C fell in markets where there was evidence of positive law enforcement activity or a favourable economic climate.

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