What will taxation look like in 2030?
The ‘Voices’ in this report cover many facets of taxation and beyond — from tax leaders, policy makers and tax authorities to the tax leaders of leading international companies.
Together, they deliver a wealth of perception, forward thinking and expertise.
In the world today, and especially when it comes to tax, the blistering pace of change and extreme, unprecedented events make it seem impossible to predict what’s around the next corner. But in some respects, we can glimpse how global forces at work today — from the pandemic and inflation to the energy crisis and war — might be moulding the tax landscape of tomorrow.
We asked 17 of the tax world’s most inspirational and imaginative leaders for their unique views of what to expect in 2030 — and how we may reach that point.
Predictions for 2030
The tax landscape is changing at a faster pace than ever before — but what does that transformation mean for the future?
To consider the potential answers to that question, KPMG asked tax leaders, policymakers and tax authorities from around the world to give us their views of what tax may look like in 2030. The Voices in this report represent many facets of taxation, from global tax policymakers and revenue authorities to the tax leaders of international companies and investors in a range of industries. Their combined vision of the future provides fascinating insights into where we may be headed.
Their predictions on tax span five areas where they — and KPMG — expect change could be most profound:
- Governments have stepped up direct support for their citizens’ health and wellness.
- Tax policies incent the private sector to fill gaps where education, training and other government services are lacking.
- Businesses are bolder in holding governments to account as equal partners in the social contract.
- Tax administrations have morphed into mega agencies in charge of all financial dealings between governments and their citizens.
- Citizens find their taxes easier to manage as tax authorities use data to help them avoid mistakes and get compliance right.
- Geopolitics have shifted from “wars of maneuver” to “wars of position”, requiring more transparency, collaboration and diversity of ideas on all sides.
- Governments have recovered their ability to tax large multinationals, largely because of breakthroughs in tax co-operation facilitated by the OECD.
- Aggressive tax planning and double non-taxation are things of the past.
- As the complex rules under BEPS 2.0 are put in place, tax certainty is more important than ever.
- Developing countries are relying more on tax policy to help restructure their economies, mobilise domestic resources and improve the management of public funds.
- More stakeholders recognize that transparency makes people more accountable and that data drives behavior.
- Collaboration among tax authorities continues to bring more transparency and consistency to income and indirect tax rules.
- Corporate income tax systems have moved toward a globally common, data-driven approach.
- Data and analytics have vastly increased tax authorities’ powers to enforce compliance and raise collections.
- Good governance is needed to ensure tax authorities use these powers as intended.
- Innovations in telecommunications, fintech and other technologies are accelerating economic development in emerging markets.
- Luxury taxes on smartphones and other tax deterrents to connectivity have disappeared, making mobile technology affordable for people of all income levels.
- Innovations in fintech are creating more financial inclusion and supporting entrepreneurial growth.
- Governments recognize the importance of patient capital investments for sustainable longterm growth.
- Developing countries are enriching their tax incentives for innovation, research and skilled employment, and becoming innovation exporters themselves.
- ESG and return on investment considerations have aligned so that ESG programs usually produce better returns.
- The end of tax competition has shifted corporate tax planning toward accessing incentives.
- Hybrid carrot and stick approaches to tax have proven the best way to get companies to change the way they do business.
- Every nation has developed an integrated road map to establish a sustainable, circular economy.
- Safer, more inclusive economies have resulted, with greater wealth and well-being for all.