The integrated scenarios presented in this report were developed by a consortium of major Aotearoa New Zealand-based retailers and KPMG New Zealand. The scenarios’ primary purpose is to support strategic decision-making by the leadership teams of retail businesses and their value chain partners. The scenarios are fully aligned with guidance provided by New Zealand’s External Reporting Board and, as such, provide a solid foundation for further work including preparation of climate-related disclosures.

The retail sector touches the lives of all New Zealanders, giving it a level of influence that few other sectors can match. With this comes a responsibility to lead in adapting, transitioning and transforming the sector to a low-carbon, climate-resilient future.

Retail is engaged in every aspect of global value chains and their associated carbon emissions. From sourcing and production - including raw materials, manufacturing processes and supply chains - to transport and logistics, retail operations, and ultimately the end of life of products. Through their interaction with consumers, retailers also influence the lifestyles and behaviours that can contribute to meaningful emissions reductions.

The climate scenarios developed by partners in the ‘Retail Sector Shared Scenarios Project’ ask us to confront a new reality where finite planetary boundaries and climate change are impacting the abundance and convenience we have enjoyed freely over the past decades. The scenarios are a catalyst for us to reimagine how we, and our value chains, operate.

The messages that project partners most want to share with you are:

We are deeply concerned about the impacts of climate change on our country, our customers, and our team members.

We believe that addressing climate change is about protecting the quality of life of all people and places touched by our businesses. It is not just a ‘nice to have’, it is connected to our purpose as businesses that seek to generate  long-term value. 

We need to face the new reality in which we operate.

The three scenarios examined in our report offer reference points that will inform how we prepare our businesses for climate change. They are not static scenarios with absolute trajectories; rather, they are potential outcomes which will inform our thinking and planning. In addition, they also present  opportunities to harness the capacity - inherent in retailing - to change and innovate. 

We must rapidly take action to reimagine and reengineer our value chains.

From the way we design and source products, to how we package, ship, store, and sell them to our customers. We must also consider product use by customers and the imperative to move from linear to circular systems. We are already undertaking actions and initiatives to achieve these outcomes, but we need to extend beyond our direct sphere of influence and take a leadership role in proportion to our impact.

This work is just the beginning. These scenarios can be used by any retailer, whether public or private, large or small, and we hope to see the sector – along with adjacent sectors – collaborate pre-competitively to meet the challenges ahead. There is a significant opportunity for all retailers to be part of a sector which contributes to the long-term resilience and prosperity of Aotearoa New Zealand.

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