Automotive industry with limited growth expectations

Global KPMG survey of more than 1,000 auto executives

Global KPMG survey of more than 1,000 auto executives

  • Doubts about growth prospects over the next five years have grown worldwide
  • Optimism for the EV market has increased, but remains at a low level; executives see Tesla as the undisputed market leader in this segment
  • Significantly fewer automotive leaders see their company prepared for advanced manufacturing technologies
  • Consumers are moving away from traditional dealerships

Berlin, 25 January 2024

According to a global KPMG survey of more than 1,000 auto executives, growth expectations in the automotive industry have worsened: only a third of auto executives (34 percent) are extremely confident of achieving profitable growth in the next five years. In the previous year, the figure was 41 percent. In Western Europe, the proportion of executives who are extremely confident about growth prospects fell from 31 percent to just 24 percent. Only Chinese decision-makers are defying the global trend. Here, confidence rose from 28 percent to 36 percent.

Executives are more optimistic about the EV market

Optimism for the EV market has increased: On average, executives anticipate a greater proportion of battery-electric vehicles in new car sales by 2030 compared to the previous year's study. However, expectations regarding market share remain cautious: China is expected to have the highest penetration of EVs with 36 percent of new car sales, followed by the USA (33 percent), Japan (32 percent) and Western Europe (30 percent).

Despite the flurry of new models, the majority of executives expect strong global competition for established automakers in the EV market in the future. They see Tesla as the undisputed market leader in 2030, with BMW and Audi trailing far behind in second and third place. Apple, whose market entry has not yet been confirmed, is in fourth place and has made a big leap forward compared to eighth place last year.

Confidence in own technology readiness has declined significantly

Compared to the previous year, the automotive industry feels significantly less prepared for advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) or advanced robotics. Only 40 percent of executives worldwide believe that their company is very well or extremely well prepared for advanced manufacturing technologies, compared to 63 percent in the previous year.

AI is seen as the most important skill for automotive companies: A quarter of the executives surveyed worldwide believe that AI software engineers will be the most important skilled workers in their company in the next several years. In the previous year, this qualification was still in third place.

Massive competition for new revenue streams

In the massive competition for new revenue streams such as autonomous driving, infotainment and cyber security, automakers are expected to be best positioned. They are followed by Google and Apple in second place and dealers in third. When it comes to autonomous vehicles, more than half of those surveyed still see Tesla as the leader, followed by technology companies and a few OEMs.

Shift away from traditional dealerships

According to the executives, consumers are moving away from traditional dealerships: automotive leaders worldwide expect that by 2030, around two thirds of new car sales will be made directly via automakers or online retail platforms and only around one third via traditional dealership models. The shift away from traditional dealerships is likely due to the proliferation of online retail platforms and changing consumer preferences.

The detailed results of the study can be downloaded here:

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Alessia Gerkens

Press Officer
KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft
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