China Economic Monitor: Q2 2023

China’s GDP grew 4.5% year-over-year (yoy) in 2023 Q1, up from 2.9% in Q4 2022 and higher than market expectations. The better-than-expected growth was mainly supported by consumption recovery, export resilience and improving property market.

China’s economy is recovering since the removal of pandemic-related restrictions, with demand is gradually improving. However, the recovery is still at an early stage and varies by sector. Improving household and corporate confidence is still the key to unlock faster economic recovery. We maintain our forecast of 5.7% for China’s GDP growth in 2023 and expect the economy to grow 5.2% in 2024.

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