China’s GDP grew 18.3% year-over-year (yoy) in Q1, up from 6.5% in Q4 2020. However, on a sequential basis, the rebound is slowing. Most major economic indicators surged significantly in Q1 on a low base effect. Industrial production and exports growth remained strong. The “Stay-put” policy implemented by many local governments during the Chinese New Year period expedited post-holiday production resumption. Meanwhile, Q1 exports continued to accelerate with strong external demand from advanced economies for manufacturing and electronic products. We expect China’s economy to continue to recover, and we maintain our 2021 GDP forecast at 8.8%.
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