Canada finds itself in a peculiar position. After decades of restricted defence spending, the most-recent budget signals a renewed commitment to modernizing the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). In public discourse, defence appears to be rising on the Wheel of Fortune.
Roman senator and philosopher Boethius conceived the Wheel of Fortune metaphor in his The Consolation of Philosophy, warning that the capricious nature of Fate is precisely when judgment is most vulnerable. The Wheel turns without regard for confidence or intention. Those who mistake ascent for permanence, or momentum for progress, often discover too late that circumstance was doing more work than wisdom.
History supports Boethius’ principle.
Canada has rarely been prepared for conflict when it arrived. Defence spending has tended to surge in reaction to a crisis and fade just as quickly when optimism returns.
In the 1980s, for example, Canada explored the purchase of nuclear-powered submarines, to meet the strategic realities of the time. But when the Berlin Wall fell, so too did the political appetite for investment. The peace dividend was quickly spent, and the CAF entered what is now remembered as the ‘decade of darkness’.
This was not a failure of intelligence or intent but of perspective. Leaders confused the movement of history with its destination. Francis Fukuyama’s declaration of the “end of history” captured the prevailing belief that conflict between major powers was behind us. The Wheel had turned upward, and many assumed it would remain there.
Today’s environment tempts similar assumptions. The scope and scale of announced defence spending suggest urgency and resolve. Yet, between commitment and capability lies a long, uncertain path. A minority Parliament means budgets must survive committee scrutiny amid political friction. Treasury Board approvals, and complex procurement processes remain. New organizations such as the Defence Investment Agency must lead significant institutional change even as they deliver against ambitious timelines. Programs must be integrated not just executed, particularly around digital transformation, that touch every element of the force.
None of this is dysfunction. It is the reality of governing in a complex democracy. It does, however, underscore how quickly apparent momentum can dissipate. A spring election, a change in leadership, a shift in geopolitical tone, or an unexpected resolution of a major conflict could all reorder priorities. The Wheel turns for institutions as surely as for individuals.
Boethius’ most useful warning is this: The greatest risk is not decline, but complacency. When institutions mistake activity for advancement, they often expend enormous energy without building durable capability. Movement feels like progress, but progress requires coherence, integration and innovative thinking.
This moment carries responsibilities for both government and industry. Defence is a symbiotic ecosystem. Government sets priorities, allocates resources, and manages national risk on behalf of the public. Industry invests, innovates, and delivers capability over decades, not budget cycles. When times appear favourable, both face the temptation to optimize for the near term. That instinct is understandable, but dangerous.
History suggests current spending levels will not endure indefinitely. The wiser course is to use this period to make deliberate choices that will hold when the Wheel turns again. Some capabilities are essential to the CAF but do not require domestic production. Building industrial capacity where Canada lacks the foundational ecosystem or cannot compete globally risks leaving the country with unsupportable infrastructure when funding ebbs.
At the same time, there are areas where Canada can lead, such as autonomous systems. But leadership requires clarity: Will Canada compete on scale and cost, or on quality and specialization? Which markets will Canadian products serve? Who are the competitors and what problem are we solving better than anyone else? These are strategic questions that demand alignment between government policy and industrial ambition.
None of this is possible without trust. The barriers that separate government and industry today are not abstract; they shape behaviour, slow decisions, and introduce risk where national security should demand speed and clarity. Breaking down those barriers does not mean reducing accountability. It means recognizing that collaboration is a key enabler of stewardship.
Boethius did not argue that fortune should be rejected. He argued that it should not be mistaken for virtue.
Canada’s current defence moment may represent ascent on the Wheel. If so, its value lies not in what it signals today, but in what it enables tomorrow. Humility, discipline, and deliberate choice are the only safeguards against the illusion of permanence.
The Wheel will turn again. The question is whether we will have used this moment wisely enough to endure when it does.
