2 July 2024 – Geopolitical uncertainty slowing growth, but GDP rebound forecast for 2025

• KPMG International forecasts GDP growth slipping from 2.7% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024
• A return to 2.7% growth forecast for 2025
• Inflation forecast to continue cooling in most regions, but price pressures could take longer to unwind

KPMG International is forecasting global growth will slow from the 2.7% 2023 pace to 2.5% in 2024 and rebound to 2.7% next year. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to continue to cool, but in many countries the price pressure will take longer to unwind than it took to emerge.

The latest predictions in KPMG’s Q2 2024 Global Economic Outlook reflect the current elevated geopolitical uncertainty, with nearly half of the world’s population already voting or heading to the polls in 2024. Armed conflict and trade tensions are flaring in numerous parts of the world which could fuel more isolationist policies. KPMG’s international team of economists believe the resulting risk could be more frequent bouts of inflation and the possibility of activist monetary policies.