Scale matters more than deal count
Several large transactions shaped the market in the second half of 2025 (H2’25). The first half of 2026 (H1’26) did not show a broad rebound. Deal count declined, but larger transactions carried more strategic weight. Capital focused on assets with platform control, customer ownership, operating leverage, and credible integration pathways.
In the travel, leisure, and hospitality (TLH) sector, buyers placed greater weight on fundamentals. They tested repeatable revenue, defensible pricing power, distribution control, and whether technology can improve margins—not just support the investment thesis.1
The data shows lower activity but higher value. Deal volume declined 7.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), while deal value increased 106.8 percent. Value was concentrated in a small number of larger deals, while broader dealmaking stayed measured.
In this K-shaped economy, higher-income consumers are carrying the spending load of the TLH sector. They have also been less reactive to general price increases over the last several years. Active buyers were not just buying exposure to travel demand, gaming recovery, resort occupancy, or restaurant traffic. They were buying scalable systems: loyalty platforms, route networks, guest data, distribution economics, branded lodging infrastructure, experiential ecosystems, and operating models with integration potential.2 3
The thesis varied by subsector. In travel, value centered on network density, customer acquisition, and mobility economics. In leisure, buyers favored durable engagement over short-term attendance spikes. In hospitality, quality meant pricing power, revenue management, brand affiliation, renovation upside, and stronger guest relationships.
Execution remains the key risk. Large-platform deals can lose value postclose if technology, loyalty, franchise governance, capital expenditures (capex), or restaurant operations underperform. The market is paying for scale, but value will be created—or lost—in execution.
