KPMG 2024 CEO Outlook

1. Cyber security
2. Operational issues
3. Emerging/disruptive technology
4. Geopolitics and political uncertainty
5. Environmental/climate change
6. Supply chain
7. Regulatory concerns
8. Strategic risk
9. Reputational/brand

For the CEOs surveyed, technological innovation has been the single most disruptive force over the past 10 years, with emerging and disruptive technology landing as a top three risk to growth in six of the past nine surveys.

When KPMG first launched the CEO Outlook a decade ago, AI was gaining traction with breakthroughs in areas such as image recognition, natural language processing and autonomous vehicles. In 2024, the majority (64 percent) of global CEOs indicated that they would invest in AI regardless of economic conditions. And while today’s AI use-cases generate plenty of buzz in the public discourse, global CEOs recognize the need to seize the challenges that lie ahead, considering AI’s potential to transform every aspect of our everyday life.

Despite public concern around the risk of redundancies, CEOs recognize the transformative potential of AI and remain confident that it will not have a detrimental impact on the workforce, with over three quarters (76 percent) of CEOs anticipating AI will not fundamentally reduce the number of jobs within their organizations over the next three years. Yet, CEOs also recognize their workforce will need to adapt to fully harness the opportunity, as when asked about their organization’s current AI readiness, only 38 percent of CEOs were confident that their employees have the right skills to fully leverage the benefits. Furthermore, 58 percent agree that the integration of generative AI has made them rethink the skills required for entry-level roles.  

This growing commitment to AI shows that global CEOs are building on the capital expenditure momentum witnessed last year, as all CEOs say they plan to invest in AI in some form. They recognize AI’s potential to increase efficiency and productivity (16 percent), upskill the workforce for future readiness (14 percent) and increase organizational innovation (13 percent). However, a majority of CEOs (63 percent) acknowledge an ROI on AI is unlikely for at least three to five years — in line with last year.

Amid growing concerns about the ethical use and implementation of AI, CEOs are increasingly aware of the risks tied to its rapid adoption. Well over half (61 percent) identified ethical challenges as some of the most difficult issues to address when implementing AI within their businesses — an increase from 57 percent in 2023. Additionally, concerns over a lack of regulation (50 percent) and insufficient technical skills and capabilities (48 percent) further complicate the path forward. 

Since 2015, as employees have demanded more flexibility in working patterns and a stronger alignment between personal beliefs and organizational purpose, successful leaders have adapted well to this shifting workforce dynamic. The leaders who prosper are those who put people at the heart of their growth strategy and evolve their social contract to keep up with the evolving expectations of current and future talent.

However, the leaders surveyed show that the return-to-office debate continues to give food for thought. This years’ findings reveal that CEOs are hardening their stance on returning to pre-pandemic ways of working, with 83 percent expecting a full return to the office within the next three years — a notable increase from 64 percent in 2023. And this expectation only increases with age: 75 percent for those aged 40 to 49, 83 percent for those aged 50 to 59, and 87 percent for those aged 60 to 69. Interestingly, there is also a gender split emerging in this debate: while 84 percent of male CEOs predict a full return to the office within three years, only 78 percent of female CEOs anticipate the same shift back. Furthermore, 87 percent of respondents say they are likely to reward employees who make an effort to come into the office with favorable assignments, raises or promotions. 

CEOs also acknowledge that other talent-related issues could affect future growth and competitiveness. Almost a third of them say they are concerned about labor market shifts — specifically the number of employees that will soon retire, and the lack of skilled workers available to replace them. In response to this talent shortage, 80 percent of CEOs agree that organizations should be investing in skills development and lifelong learning within local communities to help safeguard access to future talent. With this local commitment, 92 percent of leaders hope this will help to increase the overall headcount of their workforce over the next three years.  

This year’s findings expose the reality of navigating environmental, social and governance priorities in today’s climate. Alongside a growing awareness of ESG’s impact on trust and reputation, the increasingly politicized nature of the ESG agenda is heightening the pressure felt by today’s leaders.

In 2015, CEOs ranked environmental risk as their least concerning priority risk; fast-forward to 2024 and almost a quarter (24 percent) acknowledged that the principal downside of failing to meet ESG expectations would be giving their competitors an edge, coming out ahead of threat to their own tenure (21 percent) and recruitment challenges (16 percent).  

It’s clear that leaders are willing to take action when it comes to ESG, with three quarters (76 percent) of CEOs saying they would be willing to divest a profitable part of the business that was damaging their reputation. More tellingly, a majority (68 percent) indicate that they would take a stance on a politically or socially contentious issue, even if the Board raised concerns with them doing so. The survey also shows that today’s CEOs recognize just how vital ESG is to value creation — just under a quarter (24 percent) cite giving their competitors an edge as the principal downside of failing to meet ESG expectations.

Two-thirds of CEOs admit they aren’t prepared to withstand the potential scrutiny and expectations of shareholders when it comes to ESG, suggesting they will take action to mitigate this. Interestingly, there are emerging generational differences among CEOs, with 43 percent of younger leaders (aged between 40 and 49) feeling more confident they can take on scrutiny around ESG compared to 33 percent of CEOs aged 50-59 and 30 percent of those aged 60 to 69.

Finally, 30 percent say the greatest barrier to achieving their climate ambitions is the complexity presented by the decarbonization of their supply chain — an issue further compounded by current geopolitical tensions around the world and activities impacting major global trade routes. As we head into 2025, it will be interesting to see how this impacts opinions and organizations overall, as ESG reporting begins to take hold across the globe.