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      As we navigate through 2025, the global geopolitical landscape continues to evolve rapidly, bringing both challenges and opportunities for businesses here in Aotearoa.

      Our latest global CEO Outlook survey reveals that geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty are perceived as the top threats to organisational growth.

      Although New Zealand may be geographically distant from many global hotspots, our open and interconnected economy means we are not immune to the impact of recent global events and challenges. Businesses that prepare and adapt to these changes are best positioned to thrive.

      KPMG’s new global report ‘Top Geopolitical Risks 2025’ outlines five critical trends that Kiwi businesses should consider:

      • Tectonic geopolitical shifts in power, wealth, and trade
      • A complex, fragmented regulatory environment
      • Steering a path through the technology maze
      • Resilience in an unpredictable world
      • Shaping a dynamic and adaptable workforce

      By proactively managing these geopolitical risks, Kiwi businesses can not only mitigate potential threats but also take advantage of new opportunities for growth and stability.

      The below report details insights from KPMG leaders across the world on the top geopolitical risks of 2025 and identifies how to turn these challenges into opportunities

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      Top geopolitical risks 2025

      Opportunities for businesses to navigate uncertainty with confidence
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      Top geopolitical risks 2025

      Executive summary
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      Top trends

      In our report, we have identified five critical trends:

      Tectonic shifts in power, economic centres and trade

      New trade alliances and investment hubs are redefining global power dynamics. The US is imposing tariffs, eliciting retaliatory responses, while new economic ‘nodes’ are emerging outside of traditional investment centres.

      A complex, fragmented regulatory and tax environment

      Regulations and tax are evolving at different speeds in different geographies. Minimum global tax is becoming adopted by many countries, while others are withdrawing from multilateral tax policy

      A fast-moving and politicised technology landscape

      Shifting alliances (based upon national security concerns) and fragmented regulations add to complexity, while the emergence of new Generative AI (Gen AI) players challenges US dominance. Regulators are struggling to keep pace with new Gen AI solutions, and a rolling back of regulations could leave AI models out of control. Geopolitical competition in AI and other technologies (i.e. quantum computing) is creating technological blocs around the US and China, thus jeopardising international cooperation and access.

      Multiple threats to supply chains, assets and infrastructure

      Geopolitical rivalries, trade protectionism, conflict, competition for resources, cyberattacks and climate events place severe strains on globally exposed businesses. Wars and tensions pose rising threats to key shipping choke points. Countries are adopting protectionist measures to safeguard and diversify their supply chains, including energy, food and critical minerals.

      Demographic, technological and cultural pressures on workforces

      Aging populations, mass retirement, falling birth rates (in developed markets), changing worker preferences, culture wars, AI integration and reskilling bring major workforce challenges.

      Get in touch

      Mair Brooks
      Mair Brooks

      Partner, Infrastructure Advisory – Major Projects and Infrastructure

      KPMG in New Zealand

      Tani Mohite
      Tanvi Mohite

      Director - Consulting

      KPMG in New Zealand

      Nicola Raynes-Pene - KPMG New Zealand
      Nicola Raynes-Pene

      National Industry Leader - Financial Services

      KPMG in New Zealand

      Mark Crawford
      Mark Crawford

      Partner - Advisory

      KPMG in New Zealand

      Bineeta Nand
      Bineeta Nand

      Partner - Risk Consulting

      KPMG in New Zealand