As we navigate through 2025, the global geopolitical landscape continues to evolve rapidly, bringing both challenges and opportunities for businesses here in Aotearoa.
Our latest global CEO Outlook survey reveals that geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty are perceived as the top threats to organisational growth.
Although New Zealand may be geographically distant from many global hotspots, our open and interconnected economy means we are not immune to the impact of recent global events and challenges. Businesses that prepare and adapt to these changes are best positioned to thrive.
KPMG’s new global report ‘Top Geopolitical Risks 2025’ outlines five critical trends that Kiwi businesses should consider:
- Tectonic geopolitical shifts in power, wealth, and trade
- A complex, fragmented regulatory environment
- Steering a path through the technology maze
- Resilience in an unpredictable world
- Shaping a dynamic and adaptable workforce
By proactively managing these geopolitical risks, Kiwi businesses can not only mitigate potential threats but also take advantage of new opportunities for growth and stability.
The below report details insights from KPMG leaders across the world on the top geopolitical risks of 2025 and identifies how to turn these challenges into opportunities.
Top trends
In our report, we have identified five critical trends:
Tectonic shifts in power, economic centres and trade
New trade alliances and investment hubs are redefining global power dynamics. The US is imposing tariffs, eliciting retaliatory responses, while new economic ‘nodes’ are emerging outside of traditional investment centres.
A complex, fragmented regulatory and tax environment
Regulations and tax are evolving at different speeds in different geographies. Minimum global tax is becoming adopted by many countries, while others are withdrawing from multilateral tax policy.
A fast-moving and politicised technology landscape
Shifting alliances (based upon national security concerns) and fragmented regulations add to complexity, while the emergence of new Generative AI (Gen AI) players challenges US dominance. Regulators are struggling to keep pace with new Gen AI solutions, and a rolling back of regulations could leave AI models out of control. Geopolitical competition in AI and other technologies (i.e. quantum computing) is creating technological blocs around the US and China, thus jeopardising international cooperation and access.
Multiple threats to supply chains, assets and infrastructure
Geopolitical rivalries, trade protectionism, conflict, competition for resources, cyberattacks and climate events place severe strains on globally exposed businesses. Wars and tensions pose rising threats to key shipping choke points. Countries are adopting protectionist measures to safeguard and diversify their supply chains, including energy, food and critical minerals.
Demographic, technological and cultural pressures on workforces
Aging populations, mass retirement, falling birth rates (in developed markets), changing worker preferences, culture wars, AI integration and reskilling bring major workforce challenges.
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