Flashnotes - Issue 12

• Real GDP in Nigeria rose by 2.54%, year on year in the third quarter of 2023, slightly higher than 2.51% recorded in Q2 2023 and 2.25% in Q3 2022.
• Average year to date growth rate stands at 2.45%, which will now require Q4 2023 growth of about 5.1% to meet 2023 targeted growth rate of 3.75% assumed in the 2023 budget.
• We retain our earlier 2023 forecast at 2.65% driven by continuous improvements in the oil sector, while expecting the non-oil sector to retain its slow and fragile performance on the back of weakening household purchasing power, generally weaker private investments, and higher business costs. 

The Nigerian economy grew in real terms by 2.54% in Q3 2023, representing a marginal increase compared to 2.51% recorded in Q2 2023 and 2.25% in Q3 2022. The data further revealed that growth was majorly driven by the services sector, which grew by 3.99% though lower than the preceding quarter which recorded 4.42% growth. Industry, which contracted in Q2 2023 with a growth rate of -1.94% grew by 0.46% in Q3 2023. At the same time, the agricultural sector recorded 1.30% growth which was slightly slower than Q2 2023 when it grew by 1.50%. Further decomposition of the data for Q3 2023, reveals the oil sector contracted by -0.85%, compared to -13.43% recorded in Q2 2023 while the non-oil sector grew by 2.75%, compared to 3.58% in Q2 2023 and 4.27% in Q3 2022. 

The non-oil sector performance was driven by the Metal ores (68.76%), Coal Mining (58.03%), Finance and Insurance (28.21%, Rail transport and Pipelines (18.23%), Water supply and Waste management (11.93%), and the Information and Communication sectors (6.67%) Other key results include: Average Oil production 1.45mbpd (Q2 2023, 1.22mbpd); Manufacturing 0.48% (Q2 2023, 2.20%) Trade 1.53% (Q2 2023, 2.41%) Transport -35.85% (Q2 2023, -50.74%) ICT 6.69% (Q2 2023, 8.60%) Real Estate 1.90% (Q2 2023 1.87%) Finance and Insurance 28.21% (Q2 2023, 26.84%) Education 1.45% (Q2 2023, 1.42%) Health 2.93% (Q2 2023, 1.95%).