Climate Multilateralism – The outcomes over time

By Winfred Kinuthia, Manager, KPMG International Development Advisory Services (IDAS)

To understand the Conference of Parties (COP) we must first understand the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Based in Bonn, Germany, the UNFCCC is the UN secretariat tasked with facilitating the global response to the threat of climate change. Established in 1992 at the Earth Summit in Rio, Brazil, the Convention was enforced in 1994 after attaining the minimum 50 ratifications required. It tracks implementation of the global protocols and agreements agreed upon by the countries that are signatories to the convention. Some key agreements include the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris agreement.

COP was established to provide a platform for global multilateral discussions on climate change and subsequent decision-making. Each year the parties (states and countries) who are signatories to the UNFCCC meet to assess progress towards the global climate goals. COP and the presidency rotates across the five UN regions of Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, Central, Eastern and Western Europe.

The first Conference of Parties (COP1) was held in Berlin, Germany in 1995. Its magnitude was small, likened to a working session, unlike the current conference that at its maximum, has attracted 85,000 participants. Being the first COP, the focus was on unifying and strengthening the global response to climate change. Discussions were guided by scientific findings from bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on the pace and impact of climate change.   

In 1996, parties met in Geneva, Switzerland for COP 2. There was a sense of urgency in setting global emission targets recommended by the IPCC’s second assessment report. The report’s recommendation of enforcing legally binding emission targets with timelines for developed countries was met by push back from these countries. There was a breakdown in negotiations and hence no agreements with the baton passed to COP3 in Kyoto, Japan.

COP 3 was a very significant COP where the first global greenhouse gas emission targets were set amidst intense negotiations.  The tone was set by the COP 3 presidency outlining that a global climate strategy required developed countries to commit to reduced emissions as developing countries shifted to low carbon sustainable development pathways. Developed countries would be required to provide the technical and financial assistance for these pathways.  After significant negotiations and near negotiation breakdowns, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted setting legally binding climate targets for developed countries as well as a global goal to reduce emissions by 5.2% compared to 1990 levels in the 2008-2012 period. As these global targets were set with scientists demanding a 60%-80% reduction, it was still considered low.

The protocol had two mechanisms that enhanced the flexibility for developed countries to meet the targets which were the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) (where developed countries can have emission reduction projects in developing countries earning certified emission reduction (CER) credits) and the Joint Implementation (JI) which is similar to the CDM except that the emission reduction project is hosted in a developed country.

There is usually a time lag between when a COP adopts a protocol/agreement and when it is operationalized after ratification.  Unfortunately, the Kyoto Protocol came into effect seven years after its adoption, in early 2005, following ratification by the required minimum of 55 countries contributing to 55% of global greenhouse gas emissions in 1990.

Between 1997, COP 3 in Kyoto and 2005, COP 11 in Montreal, negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol continued. Countries under the umbrella group consisting of the United States of America (USA), Japan, Russia, Canada, Australia and New Zealand were on one side pushing back on the Kyoto protocol while the EU countries used the flexibility mechanisms to make the protocol adaptable.  Significant challenges were faced in 2000 at COP 6 in the Hague, Netherlands with the conference ending without an agreement and the US withdrawing from the protocol. It was reconvened as COP6-2 in Bonn, Germany in early 2001. COP 11 saw a decision to extend the mandate of the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012.

The following year, in 2006, parties descended on Nairobi, Kenya for COP 12. On the back of successful ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, parties sought clarity on whether developed countries were currently doing enough to meet the global climate targets. The COP also noted that the CDM mechanism had low participation from least developed countries, pushing for more funding for technical assistance to enhance inclusion of these countries.

The conversations around adaptation for developing countries continued in Bali at COP 13 in 2007, where the Adaptation Fund (AF) was successfully operationalized linked to an independent body outside of the Green Environment Facility (GEF). This was a memorable step for developing countries as it enhanced accessibility of the Fund. The Bali Action Plan was formulated during this COP where developed nations committed to quantified emission limitation and reduction, while developing countries committed to mitigation actions supported and enabled by technology, capacity building and financing. The action plan set guidelines to ensure long-term cooperative action and act as the guiding document for climate targets post Kyoto.

COP 14 in 2008, and COP 15 in 2009, in Poznan, Poland and Copenhagen, Denmark respectively had parties struggle to further negotiate the Bali Action Plan. This was imperative with the Kyoto Protocol set to lapse in 2012. COP 15 in Copenhagen was one of the most strained conferences with schisms between developed and developing countries in full display. The ‘Danish Text’ which was to be developed into the Copenhagen Accord was leaked at the start of the conference. The text developed without involvement of developing countries had stringent provisions such as a limit of emissions to 1.33 tonnes per person by 2050 for poor countries.  It also handed over climate finance management to the World Bank to be disbursed to developing countries once they met specific requirements. This was truly a low point in the diplomatic nature of climate negotiations ending with a political statement that was only noted and not adopted. This was, however, the first time the 1.5 – 2 degrees Celsius of warming target was mentioned.

With the breakdown in 2009, COP 16, 2010, in Cancun, Mexico and COP 17, 2011, in Durban, South Africa saw major efforts in an attempt to restore climate diplomacy and refocus the negotiations to a post 2012 consensus. COP 16 saw establishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) while COP 17 managed to have the Kyoto Protocol on a limited transitional basis while operationalizing the GCF.

The parties set 2015 as the target for developing a legally binding global climate agreement post Kyoto and spent COP 18, 2012, in Doha, Qatar, COP 19, 2013, in Warsaw, Poland and COP 20, 2014, in Lima, Peru negotiating a working draft. Alongside development of the working draft, some key accomplishments include the selection of South Korea as the host country for the GCF, discussions on a Loss and Damage mechanism and establishment of clear reporting/monitoring guidelines for REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) activities. Parties left Lima with concepts such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and ‘Common but Differentiated Responsibilities’ which would be key components of the Paris Agreement .

On 12 December 2015, 196 countries signed the Paris Agreement, the first legally binding international agreement on climate change since Kyoto in 1997.  COP 21 was momentous after years of negotiations and near breakdowns as successful climate diplomacy was achieved. The Paris Agreement was enforced in November 2016 after ratification by 55 countries contributing to 55% of global emissions. The goal was set to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius with maximum effort to stay below 1.5 degrees Celsius. Parties were to submit Nationally Determined Contributions every five years aligned to this goal which came with climate finance commitment set at a minimum of US$ 100 billion a year.

COP 22, 2016, in Marrakech, Morocco and COP 23, 2017, in Bonn, Germany with Fiji as the chair were focused on finalization of the Paris Rule Book with a deadline of 2018 to complete this exercise.  Other notable aspects in the two years were reinforcement of the US$ 100 billion a year goal as well as calls for involvement of nonstate actors in pursuing climate objectives and recognition of oceans as key to climate change with calls to capture oceans in NDCs. Loss and Damage was not yet in the Paris rule book which unsettled developing countries that had experience of climate induced natural disasters. COP 23 was the first COP to have two zones; the Bula Zone for negotiations and Bonn Zone for nonstate actors’ convenings. Known as the Blue and Green Zones today, this distinction has allowed for increased involvement of non-state actors in the conference.

COP 24, 2018, in Katowice, Poland occurred on the backdrop of global citizen activism popularly led by actors such as Greta Thunberg questioning whether the system in place to effect change works, with a message that power belongs to the people. The parties were under immense pressure to complete the Paris Rulebook which at the start of the two-week conference had over 3000 contentions. The conference delivered an almost complete rulebook save for discussions on Loss and Damage and carbon markets, the former leaving developing countries dissatisfied. The following year at COP 25, 2019, in Madrid, Spain attention shifted to oceans as carbon sinks and various initiatives for the blue economy were developed.  The COP, however, failed to iron out Article 6 facilitating carbon markets.

With a renewed sense of determination parties convened for COP 26, 2021, in Glasgow, United Kingdom post COVID. The UK Presidency had two years to prepare for the conference with the theme ‘Keeping 1.5C alive’. The Global Methane Pledge which had 100 countries committed to reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030 was significant, noting that methane contributed to half of warming experienced. Loss and Damage was discussed with the need for higher financial commitments being brought to the centre, and developing countries pushed for honoring of the US$ 100 billion pledge. The negotiations hit a major snag over the deliberations on the Coal Agreement on the phrasing on whether to ‘phase out’ or ‘phase down’ coal and related subsidies with major objections from China and India whose development trajectory was on the rise. After several rounds of negotiations, the parties agreed to a phase down of unabated coal power and phase out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. The softening of language and lack of deadlines for achieving the target weakend the agreement. Finalizing the Paris Rule Book six years after the Agreement was another key objective of this COP which proceeded with mention of Loss and Damage and adaptation finance.

The parties were back to Africa for COP 27, 2022, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt where an agreement on the Loss and Damage fund was made. This was a very historic moment as the parties finally recognized the need for financial support towards those experiencing the adverse effects of climate change. The global stock take was commissioned to assess whether submitted NDCs aligned with the goal to limit temperature rise to 1.5C with negotiations pushing for stronger commitments. From a finance perspective, the misalignment of finance flows and the climate goals was highlighted with annual requirements estimated at US$ 4 – 6 trillion a year. Discussions on a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), a new climate finance goal, began amidst concerns that the US$ 100 billion goal annually was still not being met.

COP 28, 2023, in Dubai, UAE has been the largest COP, hosting over 85,000 participants and 150 heads of state and government. There were high expectations for this COP on aspects such as the Global Stock Take (GST), operationalization of the Loss and Damage (L&D) fund, establishment of a framework for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) and reinforcement of the transition away from fossil fuels. As a requirement of Article 14 of the Paris Agreement, the GST showed that climate action was not aligned to the targets, and parties were required to take this into consideration when submitting the revised NDCs in 2025. The L&D Fund was operationalized in the first week of COP with the World Bank as the host entity for the first four years. By the end of the Conference, US$ 792million was pledged for the L&D Fund albeit voluntary, hence unenforceable. The UAE Framework for Global Climate Resilience was taken up to guide the implementation of the GGA in alignment with increasing the adaptive capacity of the most vulnerable. A unique aspect of this COP included the first ever World Health Day in COP resulting in the “UAE Declaration on Climate and Health” looking at how health and climate change are intertwined.

Referred to as the climate finance COP, COP 29, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan saw the successful negotiation of the “New Collective Quantified Goal” (NCQG) with a target contribution of US$300 billion annually for developing countries by 2035 among other things . Albeit tripled from the initial US$100 billion commitment, this was far below the demand of US$ 1.3 trillion by developing countries. In addition, rules for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement were finalized on the back of which the new international carbon market would operate from 2025. Details on the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund were advanced and discussions on the nexus between trade policies and climate action continued.

A few weeks ago, COP turned 30 years old in Belem, Brazil, with a mixed bag of traction and stagnation on various facets of the climate action discussions. As a push from the Global Stock Take (GST) initiated in Dubai, 119 countries had submitted updated NDCs by the end of COP 30. The aggregate commitments from these NDCs, however, are pointing to a 2.3 – 2.8C warming above the set target of 1.5C. The likelihood of not meeting this goal was  acknowledged for the first time, shifting focus back to the need to develop a roadmap for transition from fossil fuels, a proposition which has over and over again been blocked by petro states. This time was no different as the presidency had to settle for pursuing this roadmap outside of the formal COP discussions. On the upside, two voluntary initiatives, the ‘Global Implementation Accelerator’ and the ‘Belem Mission to 1.5C, were set up to accelerate the pace and intensity of emission reduction.

On the adaptation front, the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) was established with 59 indicators of progress identified across seven sectors such as water, agriculture and health. Finance for adaptation was tripled.  Guidance on the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) was issued and a call for funding for the start-up phase actioned. Set in the Amazon, one of the largest carbon sinks globally, there was a sense of disappointment over the inability of the process to establish a global roadmap to end deforestation. As a reprieve, the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) was established to provide finance for tropical forests’ protection with a target of US$ 25 billion with US$ 6.7 billion pledged.

This COP saw some of the largest protests over the last three years with over 70,000 people calling for climate justice. The development of the ‘just transition mechanism’ guiding inclusion of the marginalized, workers and regular people in climate action and decisions, was a highlight at the conference. The mechanism will collect views by March 2026 with a deadline of November 2026 for operationalization. Further initiatives such as the ‘Global Initiative for Jobs and Skills for the New Economy’ which will guide transition to green jobs that are inclusive and the ‘Belem declaration on Global Green Industrialization’ to scale employment creation in emerging green sectors also reinforced that people were at the centre of climate action.

Over the years, COP has enabled multilateralism enhancing diplomatic climate action to a global crisis. We have seen many breakthroughs in the form of agreements, protocols and treaties that have guided global climate action such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement which turned 10 this year. Inversely, like in any process that allows for inclusive negotiations, there have been challenges in the pace of decision making and implementation of key attributes such as the phase out of fossil fuels and increasing the climate finance contribution. With COP 30 termed as the ‘implementation COP’ with a Presidency up to November 2026, a shift to action, stocktaking and accountability that brings together government and nonstate actors will be beneficial.  As we shift focus to COP 31 in Antalya, Turkey under the Australia Presidency, continued dialogue on progress towards 1.5 degrees Celsius, sufficiency and enhancement of the NDCs, climate finance flows and alignment with global adaptation and mitigation objectives, just transition and the nexus between trade policies and climate action will ensure a more concise action driven conference.