Introduction: the aerial mobility revolution
The breathless excitement that has surrounded several VTOL original equipment manufacturers or OEMs in recent years is beginning to cool, as stratospheric growth predictions and fizzy product announcements are tempered by more sober funding rounds, regulatory clarifications and even the inevitable test accidents. Chris Brown of our Strategy team takes a look at the future of Advanced Air Mobility below.
Whilst still a market of great promise, Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is necessarily moving into a new phase, as the initial hype cycle of startup and investor activity comes to a close and the hard work of certification, delivery, and driving the many new concepts and models to full commercialization has to happen.
Some OEMs are more advanced than others down this commercialization runway, and inevitably the coming years will see a winnowing of the many young companies that have sprung up. The same can be said for burgeoning vertiport and AAM operator companies, although expect them to enter the limelight once several OEM models are fully certified.
Reader guide
The Air Taxi Readiness Index (ATRI) is a tool to facilitate discussion on the level of preparedness for the upcoming generation of passenger-carrying Short or Vertical Take-off and Landing (S/VTOL) vehicles in 60 selected territories. It is a composite index that combines over 47 individual, existing metrics from a range of sources into a single score.
The metrics are arranged across five pillars: consumer acceptance; infrastructure; policy & legislation; technology & innovation; business opportunity. Each territory receives a score for each pillar, and these are aggregated into totals for that territory, enabling the resulting ranking.
| Rankings | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 1 | Spain | 16 | Poland | 31 | Peru | 46 |
| China | 2 | New Zealand | 17 | Czech Republic | 32 | Bulgaria | 47 |
| UK | 3 | Finland | 18 | Chile | 33 | Morocco | 48 |
| France | 4 | Denmark | 19 | Portugal | 34 | Egypt | 49 |
| Germany | 5 | Ireland | 20 | Greece | 35 | Kenya | 50 |
| Japan | 6 | UAE | 21 | Luxembourg | 36 | Algeria | 51 |
| Canada | 7 | Austria | 22 | South Africa | 37 | Pakistan | 52 |
| Brazil | 8 | Italy | 23 | Hungary | 38 | Bangladesh | 53 |
| Australia | 9 | Russia | 24 | Argentina | 39 | Paraguay | 54 |
| Singapore | 10 | Mexico | 25 | Colombia | 40 | Ecuador | 55 |
| South Korea | 11 | India | 26 | Philippines | 41 | Nigeria | 56 |
| Netherlands | 12 | Saudi Arabia | 27 | Romania | 42 | Bolivia | 57 |
| Sweden | 13 | Belgium | 28 | Vietnam | 43 | Guatemala | 58 |
| Norway | 14 | Israel | 29 | Uruguay | 44 | Ethiopia | 59 |
| Switzerland | 15 | Turkey | 30 | Ukraine | 45 | Angola | 60 |
01 Consumer acceptance
Populations differ markedly in their willingness to accept S/VTOL technology. The consumer acceptance pillar aims to measure those differences through readily available proxies, aggregating data across nine internationally available measures for:
- Civil technology use
- Individual readiness to use technology
- Digital skills
- Market size
- Innovation capability
- Consumer ICT adoption rates
- Ride hailing & taxi market penetration
- Passenger air traffic volumes per capita
- Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) launch cities
As in 2021, the US leads this pillar, with China in second place. Singapore and Brazil in third and fourth bolster a strong presence at the top for Asia and South America.
02 Infrastructure
An extensive range of infrastructure is necessary to support widespread use of S/VTOL vehicles in urban environments in particular. The infrastructure pillar incorporates metrics for:
- EV charging stations
- 4G coverage
- Quantity of air traffic
- Technology infrastructure change readiness
- Mobile connection speed
- Broadband
- Climate suitability (with 18-30 degrees Celsius, sunny with low rain and humidity levels considered idea for VTOL use)
- Ground congestion
- Skyscraper density (as a proxy for downtown landing sites)
The US has moved to the top of the pillar in 2022, China down to second, with South Korea, UAE and Japan making up the top five. With Brazil in 14th, this demonstrates that an existing commercial network of heliports in itself only helps part of the way.
03 Policy and legislation
This pillar comprises nine metrics:
- Transparency
- Energy efficiency regulation
- Government readiness for change
- Future orientation of government
- Data sharing environment
- Cybersecurity regulation
- Efficiency of legal system
- Ease of doing business
- Startup business environment
Note AAM-specific policy and regulation remains an emerging field, with no widely-accepted ranking or quantification of what remain inherently qualitative differences in regulatory environments. As such, we take the approach that wider measures of policy and regulatory maturity are good proxies for a territory’s ultimate competency on AAM. The top spot here is taken by the UK, making this pillar by far the UK’s best performance, and the only pillar the US has not dominated, coming second place. Third, fourth, and fifth slots were taken by Denmark, Canada and the Netherlands, in what was generally a strong pillar for European countries.
04 Technology and innovation
The technology and innovation pillar comprises ten metrics:
- Availability of latest technology
- Innovation capability
- Cybersecurity
- AV-related patents
- Assessment of cloud computing, AI
- Industry investment in drone technology
- Drone technology firm HQs
- Drone-related patents
- Drone market share
- S/VTOL orders
The US remains the clear leader in this pillar, whilst the Netherlands and Singapore are replaced in second and third spots by China and the UK, respectively. Japan and Brazil complete the top five.
05 Business opportunity
The business opportunity pillar, new for 2022, comprises the following ten metrics in order to gauge the overall commercial potential of each territory as an AAM marketplace:
- Adjusted net national income
- Urbanization
- Tourism
- Helicopter market maturity
- Helicopter deal size
- Population density
- Passenger traffic
- LOPA (layout of passenger accommodations)
- Aviation passenger demand
- Forecast aviation passenger demand
The US dominates again in this pillar, followed by the UK, France, Canada and Germany.
Get in touch
The pace of change is challenging leaders like never before. To find out more about how KPMG perspectives and fresh thinking can help you focus on what’s next for your business or organisation, please get in touch with Chris Brown, Head of Strategy. We’d be delighted to hear from you.
Christopher Brown
Partner, Head of Strategy
KPMG in Ireland
