The global economy continues to face persistent challenges. Growth remains modest as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and subdued investment weigh on economic activities. The IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook projects global output to slow from 3.3 percent in 2024 to 3.2 percent in 2025 and 3.1 percent in 2026. Rising trade barriers, including higher tariffs in major economies, have dampened trade flows, while weaker demand has kept commodity prices under pressure. Oil prices remain below 70 US dollars per barrel as higher OPEC+ production coincides with reduced global consumption. Although headline inflation has eased to 4.4 percent in 2025 from 5.8 percent in 2024, underlying price pressures persist in many regions.
In this environment, Ghana’s economy has shown impressive resilience. Real GDP grew by 6.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025, up from 5.7 percent a year earlier, supported by strong gold exports and private sector credit growth. Inflation declined to 9.4 percent in September 2025, marking nine consecutive months of moderation, while the cedi remained relatively stable through prudent monetary management and improved external reserves, helped by solid cocoa and gold receipts.
This dynamics provides strong foundation for the 2026 Pre-Budget Survey Report, a collaboration between KPMG and the United Nations Development Programme. Each year, we engage businesses across sectors to assess how economic policies affect their operations and to gather perspectives on fiscal priorities for the upcoming budget. The objective is to provide evidence-based insights that help align national policy with private sector needs and long-term development goals.
The 2026 findings reveal cautious optimism among businesses. Respondents acknowledged visible progress in infrastructure, healthcare, and education, alongside recent tax and regulatory reforms such as the repeal of the e-levy and adjustments to import duties. These measures were seen as steps toward improving the operating environment and easing pressure on cash flows. Many respondents also commended ongoing government interventions to improve power reliability and enhance digital systems in tax administration, which have begun to reduce inefficiencies.
Still, confidence in sustained recovery remains measured. High borrowing costs, limited access to credit, and concerns about the pace of policy implementation continue to weigh on business sentiment. As Ghana prepares its 2026 Budget, respondents urge government to focus on five broad priorities. The top concern remains access to affordable and long-term finance, with many calling for credit guarantee schemes, concessional loans, and grants to ease liquidity pressures. Energy supply and cost rank next, as firms highlight frequent tariff adjustments and unreliable infrastructure. Tax reform also features prominently, with respondents urging simplification of VAT, corporate taxes, and faster refunds. Businesses emphasize the need for workforce skills development, targeted SME incentives, and greater support for local industry. Finally, there is growing interest in sustainability, with most respondents supporting green tax incentives and financing for climate-friendly investments.
At KPMG, we are inspired by the possibilities that lie ahead for Ghana. Together, let us seize this moment of promise. Ghana has endured a difficult period, but the recovery is underway, there is a lot of confidence in the prospects. With continued collaboration, mutual trust, and a focus on execution, the nation can build on its recent progress to achieve even greater heights. We will continue to work alongside the Government in designing strategies that spur economic diversification, improve fiscal health, and enhance governance and transparency. We will also support the private sector by advising businesses on how to navigate policy changes and seize new opportunities that emerge.
