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Our Nordic PE sector team shares insights on PE deal volumes in key sectors across the Nordics. 

The uncertain macroeconomic situation continued to adversely impact the broader deal space and the PE deal market in Q3/’24 – however, fundraising was active with several new funds raised.

Comments on the Nordic PE market development

  • LTM deal volume continued to decrease in Q3/’24, mainly driven by continued substantial decline in VC activity.
  • Q3/’24 Buyout and VC deal volume are the lowest on a quarterly and LTM basis during the reporting period (from Q3/’21 onwards). Buyout and VC activity has on a YoY LTM basis decreased ~25% and ~10%, respectively.
  • Buyout deal activity slowed down significantly in SE, and marginally in NO. FI and DK showed improvement compared to Q2/’24. Buyout activity in FI was at its highest level since Q2/’23.
  • Buyout deal volume decreased ~10% in the Business Services and Tech sectors compared to the previous quarter, with Tech activity reaching its lowest level during the reporting period. Consumer & Retail and IM sectors showed improvement.
  • PE fundraising was active in Q3/’24, as six buyout funds, with a combined value of ~€2.5bn, and four VC funds, with a combined value of ~€400m were closed.

Implications on the outlook for PEs

  • Cautious investment environment: Nordic PE deal makers continue to anticipate market recovery, but economic headwinds and uncertain sentiment remain, resulting in selective investment approaches, process launches, and focus on add-on deals.
  • Extended deal timelines: increased scrutiny and market uncertainty will likely continue to keep deal timelines longer than previously.
  • Sector focus on resilience: PE firms are expected to continue focusing on sectors with strong fundamentals such as selected business services segments, healthcare, technology, and renewable energy, which are expected to perform well in a volatile economy.
  • Industrial carve-outs and public-to-private transactions continue to generate interest.
  • Slow IPO activity: the IPO market remains subdued, but as in previous quarters, advisors report an uptick in the number of preparations for IPO and dual track processes underway.
  • Operational enhancements: PE firms will likely continue emphasizing operational efficiencies within their portfolios to drive value creation and mitigate risks during economic uncertainty, considering also potentially extended holding periods.
Nordic Private Equity Market Update - Q3, 2024

Nordic Private Equity Market Update - Q3, 2024

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