Our Nordic PE sector team shares insights on PE deal volumes in key sectors across the Nordics.
Comments on the Nordic PE market development
- Deal volume has remained relatively stable at around 370 since Q42022. However, when comparing annual averages, 2025 recorded 392 deals per quarter, compared with 377 in 2024, 355 in 2023, and 388 in 2022, indicating an uptick in 2025.
- Q425 buyout activity (372 deals) aligned relatively closely with the three-year quarterly average of 370 deals.
- Buyout activity declined across most Nordic markets. FI was the only market to grow, posting a significant 41% increase. SE decreased 9%, DK decreased 4% and NO saw the sharpest drop of 23% after a strong Q325.
- Sector performance declined overall, primarily driven by IM. IM and Consumer & Retail fell by 25% and 9%, respectively. Tech remained relatively stable with a modest 1% decrease. Business Services showed a strong rebound, recording a 6% increase in Q4 compared to Q3.
- Private equity fundraising in Q425 saw the closing of three buyout funds and four venture capital funds, alongside the launch of 10 new buyout funds during the quarter. Three buyout funds totaling €0.9bn and four VC fund totaling €0.2bn closed during the quarter.
Implications on the outlook for PEs
- The Nordic PE market outlook for 2026 has shifted from cautious to guarded optimism, supported by stabilising buyout activity in Q425, improving financing visibility, and a gradual reopening of exit markets. While overall volumes remain below peak levels, the Q4 stabilisation suggests the Q3 slowdown was corrective rather than the start of a prolonged downturn.
- Exit visibility is improving, with the IPO window gradually reopening into Q4 and a more constructive 2026 pipeline, particularly in Sweden and Denmark, supporting both IPO and trade-sale exits.
- Financing conditions remain uneven, with EUR and SEK funding costs easing while NOK remains comparatively expensive, driving continued regional differences in leverage appetite and deal structuring.
- Geographic divergence is likely to persist, with Sweden and Denmark entering 2026 with stronger momentum, while Finland and Norway may see a more gradual recovery following 2025 volatility.
- Sponsors remain highly selective, prioritising assets with stable cash flows and structural growth drivers (Tech, Healthcare, infrastructure-adjacent), while remaining cautious toward cyclical and trade-exposed sectors.
Nordic Private Equity Market Update Q4/2025
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