Our Nordic PE sector team shares insights on PE deal volumes in key sectors across the Nordics.
Comments on the Nordic PE market development
- Buyout deal volume has stayed relatively stable at around ~350-400 since Q123. When comparing annual averages, 2025 totaled to 410 deals / quarter, 2024 to 373, 2023 to 347 and 2022 to 379.
- Q1 activity of 362 deals was slightly lower than 3-year average of 376 deals / quarter.
- Buyout activity declined across most Nordic markets. Norway was the only market to grow, posting a 11% increase. SE decreased 13%, DK decreased 8% and FI saw the sharpest drop of 18% after a strong Q425.
- Compared to Q125, deal volume is down in SE and DK (23% and 29%, respectively) and up in FI and NO (7% and 16%, respectively).
- Sector performance declined overall, primarily driven by Tech. Business services and Consumer & Retail fell both by 9%. Tech decreased more significantly by 20%. IM showed a strong rebound, recording a 24% increase in Q1 compared to Q4.
- Compared to Q125, deal volume has decreased across all four key sectors.
- VC deal volume continues to decrease, reaching its lowest quarterly value during the analyzed period.
- Private equity fundraising in Q126 saw the closing of one buyout fund and one venture capital fund, alongside the launch of one new buyout fund during the quarter.
Implications on the outlook for PEs
- The Nordic PE outlook for 2026 strengthened modestly in Q1, with improving deal activity signaling a gradual recovery. While volumes remain below peak, momentum suggests stabilization is holding and recovery is progressing.
- Exit visibility continues to improve, supported by a reopening IPO pipeline and increased sponsor-to-sponsor activity. Public markets have stabilized, underpinning a more credible 2026 exit environment, though valuation gaps persist in cyclical sectors.
- Financing conditions are incrementally easing, with lower EUR and SEK funding costs, while NOK remains comparatively tight. Debt availability is improving for high-quality assets, though leverage remains disciplined and lender selectivity persists.
- Sponsors remain selective, prioritizing resilient, growth-oriented sectors (Tech, Healthcare, infrastructure-adjacent), with only gradual re-engagement in cyclical exposures.
Nordic Private Equity Market Update Q1/2026
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