The KPMG Debt Market Snapshot Edition Q3 2023 is here. With the aim of keeping you up to date on the latest developments and trends in Europe's financing markets, our Debt Advisory experts use current market data to discuss prominent market drivers and provide first-hand insights from daily practice. Read more in our most recent release.
Overview: The ongoing war in Ukraine and the dynamics in worldwide geopolitical power struggles have dominated headlines in Q3 2023, with worrying effects on the already fragile economy. European economies continue to struggle with the burden of persistent core inflation. During Q3, the ECB continued with its aggressive stance to maintain price stability. It implemented another 50bps hike, bringing the main refinancing rate to 4.5%, just short of its historic record of 4.75% over the 20 years ago.
In the recessionary environment with contractionary monetary policy, companies looking to refinance their debt are paying high interest rates in a market which has become increasingly cautious. On the positive side, lender confidence has increased over the quarter, and conditions have eased slightly. While the European debt market has yet to recover from an overall weak 2022, a recovery can already be observed for high-yield bonds.
Till Karrer
Partner, Deal Advisory, Head of Debt Advisory
KPMG AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft
Highlights:
- The Schuldschein Loan market slowed down considerably in Q3 2023. With total issuance volume close to €4.0bn, the market decreased by ~39% YoY. The decline follows a strong 2022, where favourable conditions and good liquidity attracted borrowers from the bond to the SSD market.
- The Investment Grade Bond market continued its recovery in Q3 2023. Stabilising spreads provided the necessary confidence for issuers to participate, driving increased activity. The improving conditions have been attracting borrowers from the loan and Schuldschein markets.
- The High-Yield Bond market continued with low but recovering issuance volume of €9.0bn, which marks an increase of ~105% YoY. However, total issuance volume remained well below its pre-pandemic levels. The lower volatility and interest rates drove demand in Q3.
