Over a five-year period, there has been strong growth of new for-profit providers entering the market, with the number of government and not-for-profit providers remaining relatively stable. The attractive market conditions during the high growth years, attributed to Commonwealth Government reforms that reduced barriers to entry have slowed. This slowdown is due to increased industry regulation and scrutiny coupled with the Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety.

Since 2017, KPMG has conducted four annual reviews of the Home Care Package market for aged care. This has included a detailed analysis of 20 distinct geographical locations across Australia, focusing on localities with a high proportion of people aged 65 years and over.

For each location, KPMG identified providers that were offering Home Care Package services in the location for the first time, as well as identifying those with existing offerings. Analysis was undertaken of the revenue generated by providers from government funded Home Care Packages over the last five years

Key findings

The total number of home care providers in the market in 2020 was 920, an 1.7 percent increase from 2019 when there were 905 providers. This represents a stark slowdown in growth across the market compared to previous years which saw an increase from 430 providers in 2016, to 905 in 2020 – an 88 percent increase across the five-year period. 

There has been a consistent drop in new provider growth across the country in the 20 areas of interest we research, when compared to the last four years. 

In the 20 locations we researched, we identified 14 new providers to the market. For-profit providers continue to make up the majority of new providers entering the market.

Insights for leaders

  • New market entrants are slowing, however those who are entering, are entering with innovative new business model and sophisticated operating models, improving consumer experience and reducing the cost to serve. 
  • Providers will need to prepare for increased regulation and oversight, including the introduction of quality indicators, oversight of serious incidents and ongoing quality reviews. The Home Care Packages program will transition to a single In-Home Care Program from July 2023. 
  • Workforce shortages remain in the sector with Home Care Package providers and Commonwealth Home Support Programme providers reported vacancy numbers of 6,479 and 6,117 at the time of the Census. 
  • Increased supply of 80,000 Home Care Packages over the next two years and stability in the composition of the market could see improvements in performance of providers. 

How is the market changing in the locations we researched?

Number of people in a Home Care Package by state/territory
(at March 2021)

State/Territory Total Share
NSW 59,436 35.6%
VIC 44,680
QLD 30,761 18.4%
WA 12,927 7.7%
SA 12,627 7.6%
TAS 3,931 2.4%
ACT 1,994 1.2%
NT 754 0.5%
Unknown 14 0.0%
Total 167,124 100.0%

Analysis of Government funded home care

KPMG has analysed the 25 largest providers of home care according to Government revenue. Collectively, these providers received 41.9 percent of Australian Government home care funding.

Government spending on home care services, including Home Care Packages, has been increasing, in line with consumer preferences and government policy to support people to remain at home for longer.

There was 24.4 percent increase in the number of Home Care Packages entering the market since 2019 which increased the potential for greater market share for many providers and provided incentives and opportunities for other providers to enter the market. 

With another 80,000 Home Care Packages entering the market over the next two years and stability in the composition of the market, providers should be able to see growth in client numbers.

Download the report for more detailed analysis of Australia’s Home Care Package providers.